Dunfermline vs Inverness CT

Dunfermline host Inverness CT at East End Park on Saturday with the two sides level on 13 points, separated only by league position — Dunfermline fifth from 8 games, Inverness sixth from 10. It is a meeting between two teams who know each other well, and recent history suggests this will not be a classic: the last five head-to-heads produced 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Dunfermline a 43.3 percent win probability at a confidence of 79. Their form reads DLWWD, while Inverness arrive with LWWDW, so both are grinding out results rather than blowing teams away. The expected goals tell the story of a tight, low-scoring affair: Dunfermline are projected at 1.1827 and Inverness at just 0.7316. No injuries are listed for either squad.

Where does the value sit? The double chance 1X carries a 75.5 percent probability, which is the safest route into this fixture. Under 2.5 goals is rated at 51.8 percent, and given that none of the last five meetings cleared two goals, that number looks well supported. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.1 percent. The correct score market points to 1-0 as the most likely outcome at 13.5 percent, with 2-0 next at 10.31 and 2-1 at 7.55.

The honest caveat: a 43.3 percent home win is not a dominant edge, and with Inverness unbeaten in patches, a draw is a live threat — the 1X covers it, but the straight home tip carries real risk.