Predictions → Scotland Championship

Dunfermline vs Livingston

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • East End Park • ☀️ 5°C, 5 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Double Chance — 1X
Model 72.8% · Market best price ≈ 63.7% · Edge +12.1 pp
Best odds 1.57 Betfair 1.57Betano 1.57Bet365 1.53
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 6.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 31.6% 2.78 Pinnacle 34.2% -2.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 72% 72.8% 1.57 Betfair 60.7% +12.1 pp
BTTS No 82% 51.8% 2.20 William Hill 43.2% +8.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 55.1% 2.01 Pinnacle 47.5% +7.6 pp
Correct Score 1-0 71% 11.8% 11.00 Bet365 4.6% +7.2 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 63% 27.3% 3.50 Betfair 26.5% +0.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Dunfermline 1.20 – 0.83 Livingston · expected total 2.04

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Dunfermline host Livingston at East End Park on Saturday with both sides locked on 13 points, though the visitors sit fourth having played 10 games to the Pars' eight. That extra game in hand gives the home side a real chance to leapfrog their opponents, and the model leans toward them doing exactly that.

The form lines are telling. Dunfermline arrive with a DLWWD run, while Livingston have stumbled through LLWDW, and the expected goals split backs up the home edge: 1.2036 for Dunfermline against 0.8345 for Livingston. Neither side reports injuries, so both managers have full squads to choose from. Recent head-to-heads have been wildly inconsistent, from Livingston's 2-0 win in August 2026 to Dunfermline's 3-0 rout in October 2024, which is worth remembering before trusting any single trend.

The headline tip is a home win at 2.78, carrying a 31.6 percent model probability and 75 confidence, but the smarter angle may be the double chance on 1X at 72.8 percent. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 55.1 percent and priced at 2.01, while BTTS No sits at 51.8 percent and 2.2. The draw is rated 27.3 percent with 63 confidence, and the most likely correct score is 1-0 at 11.8 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 next in line.

The honest caveat: a 31.6 percent home probability is far from dominant, and Livingston's recent 2-0 win in this fixture shows how quickly this matchup can flip. Treat the outright home win as a value play, not a banker.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Dunfermline

Form (last 5)
DAyr Utd (A) 1–1 · 10/10/2026LAberdeen (H) 1–4 · 03/10/2026WMorton (A) 1–0 · 19/09/2026WQueen's Park (H) 2–0 · 12/09/2026DArbroath (A) 1–1 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1561

Livingston

Form (last 5)
LPartick (H) 1–2 · 10/10/2026LAyr Utd (H) 1–2 · 03/10/2026WRaith Rovers (A) 2–0 · 25/09/2026DInverness CT (H) 2–2 · 19/09/2026WMorton (A) 4–1 · 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1387
DunfermlineLivingston
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.60
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
Elo strength rating
1561
1387

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Dunfermline

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Livingston

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship

Dunfermline

3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 3rd best BTTS rate (50%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Livingston

2nd best attack (1.40 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Dunfermline at home · Livingston away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Dunfermline (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Livingston (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–2L
W 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Dunfermline (home)Livingston (away)
W 2
D 1
W 2
L 2
Played
3
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
1.00
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
11.8%
2–0
7.7%
2–1
6.5%
3–0
3.1%
3–1
2.6%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Dunfermline 4 wins · 2 draws · Livingston 4 wins · avg 1.6 goals · BTTS in 1 of 10

4
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
22 Aug 2026 Livingston 2–0 Dunfermline Championship
02 Apr 2025 Dunfermline 1–0 Livingston Championship
15 Feb 2025 Livingston 0–0 Dunfermline Championship
05 Feb 2025 Dunfermline 0–2 Livingston Challenge Cup
29 Oct 2024 Dunfermline 3–0 Livingston Championship
03 Aug 2024 Livingston 2–0 Dunfermline Championship
20 Jul 2024 Livingston 1–0 Dunfermline League Cup
03 Apr 2018 Dunfermline 1–0 Livingston Championship
10 Feb 2018 Livingston 0–0 Dunfermline Championship
21 Oct 2017 Dunfermline 3–1 Livingston Championship

📈 Recent Form

Dunfermline

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Ayr Utd Away 1–1 D
03/10 Aberdeen Home 1–4 L
19/09 Morton Away 1–0 W
12/09 Queen's Park Home 2–0 W
05/09 Arbroath Away 1–1 D

Livingston

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Partick Home 1–2 L
03/10 Ayr Utd Home 1–2 L
25/09 Raith Rovers Away 2–0 W
19/09 Inverness CT Home 2–2 D
11/09 Morton Away 4–1 W

📊 Season Comparison — Championship

Dunfermline #6 · 13 pts —  Livingston #4 · 13 pts

Dunfermline

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–1L
W 3
D 4
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards14
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Livingston

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–5L
W 4
D 1
L 5
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards20
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
DunfermlineLivingston
W 3
D 4
L 1
W 4
D 1
L 5
Played
8
10
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.10
Clean sheets
4
3
Failed to score
2
3
Yellow cards
14
20
Red cards
0
1
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Dunfermline

0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Livingston

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws