Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Stenhousemuir vs Livingston

Next match: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ Ochilview Park

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 86% 63.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-0 64% 8.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.96 – 0.97 Livingston Β· expected total 2.93

🧠 Match Preview

Stenhousemuir host Livingston at Ochilview Park on Friday night with top spot in the Championship on the line. The hosts sit first on 22 points from 9 games, while Livingston arrive fourth on 13 points from 10, so the stakes are clear: a home win strengthens the leaders' grip, an away result drags the visitors back into the chasing pack.

The model leans heavily on Stenhousemuir's form line of LWWWL and a sharp attacking split. Their expected goals figure of 1.9588 dwarfs Livingston's 0.9708, and with both squads reporting no injuries, there is no obvious disruption to either setup. The table gap and the goal expectancy both point the same direction.

The headline tip is a Home win at 63.1 percent with confidence of 86, and the double chance 1X at 79.8 percent is the safer route. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.8 percent, while Under 2.5 goals carries 47 percent. The correct score market favours 2-0 at 8.2 percent, with 2-1 and 1-0 close behind. Value may hide in the home win if bookmakers price Livingston's recent LLWDW run too generously, or in the Under 2.5 line given Livingston's low goal expectancy.

The honest caveat: the head-to-head record is mixed, and Livingston won the most recent meeting 0-1 in September 2026, so the visitors have already shown they can frustrate this Stenhousemuir side. Treat the 63.1 percent as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Stenhousemuir

Form (last 5)
LInverness CT (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WAyr Utd (A) 1–0 Β· 25/09/2026WArbroath (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WPartick (H) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026LHeart Of Midlothian (H) 0–3 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.40
Win streak (best this season)7
Elo strength rating1396

Livingston

Form (last 5)
LPartick (H) 1–2 Β· 10/10/2026LAyr Utd (H) 1–2 Β· 03/10/2026WRaith Rovers (A) 2–0 Β· 25/09/2026DInverness CT (H) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WMorton (A) 4–1 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1387
StenhousemuirLivingston
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.40
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
7
1
Elo strength rating
1396
1387

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Stenhousemuir

BTTS
0/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Livingston

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Stenhousemuir

3rd best attack (1.30 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.40 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (0%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) Best clean sheets (6)

Livingston

2nd best attack (1.40 goals/game) Best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Stenhousemuir at home Β· Livingston away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Stenhousemuir (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–0L
W 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0

Livingston (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–0D–2L
W 2
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Stenhousemuir (home)Livingston (away)
W 4
W 2
L 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
1.00
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
8.2%
2–1
8%
1–0
7.6%
3–0
5.4%
3–1
5.2%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Livingston 6 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Stenhousemuir 1 win Β· avg 2.9 goals Β· BTTS in 2 of 7

6
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
04 Sep 2026 Livingston 0–1 Stenhousemuir Championship
21 Jan 2023 Stenhousemuir 1–3 Livingston FA Cup
10 Nov 2020 Stenhousemuir 0–4 Livingston League Cup
15 Apr 2017 Stenhousemuir 0–1 Livingston League One
21 Mar 2017 Livingston 1–0 Stenhousemuir League One
13 Dec 2016 Stenhousemuir 0–4 Livingston League One
20 Aug 2016 Livingston 4–1 Stenhousemuir League One

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Stenhousemuir

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Inverness CT Away 0–2 L
25/09 Ayr Utd Away 1–0 W
19/09 Arbroath Home 1–0 W
15/09 Partick Home 1–0 W
11/09 Heart Of Midlothian Home 0–3 L

Livingston

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Partick Home 1–2 L
03/10 Ayr Utd Home 1–2 L
25/09 Raith Rovers Away 2–0 W
19/09 Inverness CT Home 2–2 D
11/09 Morton Away 4–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Stenhousemuir #1 Β· 22 pts β€”  Livingston #4 Β· 13 pts

Stenhousemuir

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–1D–1L
W 7
D 1
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.40
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1
Yellow cards21
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Livingston

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–1D–5L
W 4
D 1
L 5
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards20
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
StenhousemuirLivingston
W 7
D 1
L 1
W 4
D 1
L 5
Played
9
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.40
1.10
Clean sheets
6
3
Failed to score
1
3
Yellow cards
21
20
Red cards
0
1
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Stenhousemuir

0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
76-90
3
scored conceded

Livingston

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws