Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Next match: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 33 β€’ Arena Fonte Nova β€’ 🌦 26.4Β°C, 17 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 80% 45.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 72% 72.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 50.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 66% 9.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.1 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 55.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Bahia 1.46 – 0.98 Sao Paulo Β· expected total 2.44

🧠 Match Preview

Bahia host Sao Paulo at Arena Fonte Nova in Round 33 of Serie A, with the hosts seventh on 49 points from 30 games and the visitors ninth on 42 from 31. The gap is seven points, but Sao Paulo have a game in hand, so this is a genuine six-pointer in the race for continental places.

The model leans home. Bahia's recent form reads WLLWW, Sao Paulo's WWLLW, and the expected-goals split is 1.4576 for the hosts against 0.9811 for the visitors, though recent shot quality is closer than that suggests, at 2.08 and 1.81 respectively. Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either side, so rotation and fatigue are real factors.

The headline tip is a Bahia win at 45.5 percent with a confidence of 80, and the double chance 1X at 72.9 percent is the safer route. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 51.6 percent, and both teams to score No sits at 50.4 percent, consistent with a tight, low-scoring night. The correct-score model points to 1-0 at 9.2 percent, with 2-0 at 9.28 and 2-1 at 9.1 close behind. Corners look the most comfortable angle: over 9.5 at 55.4 percent with an expected 11.1.

Value hunting depends on the prices you can find. If the bookmaker offers better than the implied 45.5 percent on the home win, that is where the edge lives; the same applies to the 1X line. The honest caveat is the injury chaos on both sides, which makes lineups unpredictable and could flip a tight game either way.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Bahia

Form (last 5)
WMirassol (H) 1–0 Β· 11/10/2026LPalmeiras (A) 0–1 Β· 09/10/2026LAtletico Paranaense (A) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026WRemo (H) 2–1 Β· 14/09/2026WRB Bragantino (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.68
xG against (recent avg)1.37
Elo strength rating1577
Players out23

Sao Paulo

Form (last 5)
WVasco DA Gama (H) 1–0 Β· 18/10/2026WVitoria (H) 2–1 Β· 11/10/2026LCruzeiro (A) 0–2 Β· 08/10/2026LSantos (H) 1–2 Β· 02/10/2026WInternacional (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.88
xG against (recent avg)0.35
Elo strength rating1564
Players out33
BahiaSao Paulo
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
4
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.68
0.88
xG against (recent avg)
1.37
0.35
Elo strength rating
1577
1564
Players out
23
33

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Bahia

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Sao Paulo

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Bahia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Sao Paulo

3rd best defence (1.10 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Bahia at home Β· Sao Paulo away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Bahia (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–6D–2L
W 7
D 6
L 2
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score1

Sao Paulo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–10L
W 2
D 3
L 10
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Bahia (home)Sao Paulo (away)
W 7
D 6
L 2
W 2
D 3
L 10
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.50
Clean sheets
5
1
Failed to score
1
6

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.2%
2–0
7.4%
2–1
7.3%
3–0
3.6%
3–1
3.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Bahia 2 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Sao Paulo 6 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 May 2026 Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia Serie A
26 Oct 2025 Sao Paulo 2–0 Bahia Serie A
31 May 2025 Bahia 2–1 Sao Paulo Serie A
06 Nov 2024 Bahia 0–3 Sao Paulo Serie A
30 Jun 2024 Sao Paulo 3–1 Bahia Serie A
29 Nov 2023 Bahia 0–1 Sao Paulo Serie A
30 Jul 2023 Sao Paulo 0–0 Bahia Serie A
07 Nov 2021 Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo Serie A
10 Jul 2021 Sao Paulo 1–0 Bahia Serie A
28 Nov 2020 Bahia 1–3 Sao Paulo Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Bahia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Mirassol Home 1–0 W
09/10 Palmeiras Away 0–1 L
20/09 Atletico Paranaense Away 1–2 L
14/09 Remo Home 2–1 W
05/09 RB Bragantino Away 3–2 W

Sao Paulo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Vasco DA Gama Home 1–0 W
11/10 Vitoria Home 2–1 W
08/10 Cruzeiro Away 0–2 L
02/10 Santos Home 1–2 L
20/09 Internacional Home 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Bahia #7 Β· 49 pts β€”  Sao Paulo #9 Β· 42 pts

Bahia

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–10D–7L
W 13
D 10
L 7
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets9
Failed to score4
Yellow cards69
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.68
xG against (avg)1.37
Corners for (avg)5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)8/3

Sao Paulo

Wins–Draws–Losses12W–6D–13L
W 12
D 6
L 13
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets7
Failed to score7
Yellow cards65
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.88
xG against (avg)0.35
Corners for (avg)7.30
Penalties (scored/missed)6/0
BahiaSao Paulo
W 13
D 10
L 7
W 12
D 6
L 13
Played
30
31
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.10
Clean sheets
9
7
Failed to score
4
7
Yellow cards
69
65
Red cards
2
2
xG for (avg)
1.68
0.88
xG against (avg)
1.37
0.35
Corners for (avg)
5.10
7.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
8/3
6/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Bahia

5
0-15
4
8
16-30
7
4
31-45
9
9
46-60
8
6
61-75
5
4
76-90
11
scored conceded

Sao Paulo

1
0-15
5
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
3
14
46-60
7
3
61-75
11
8
76-90
4
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Bahia

  • ❌ Ruan Pablo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Sanabria β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Michel Araujo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Sidney Duarte β€” Injury
  • ❌ Dell β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Caio Alexandre β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gilberto β€” Illness
  • ❌ Kanu β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Nicolas Acevedo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Willian Jose β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Ronaldo Strada β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Ramos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Erick β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Luciano Juba β€” Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Vieira β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Moreno β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ C. Olivera β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Ze Guilherme β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Erick Pulga β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ademir β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jean Lucas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Everaldo β€” Red Card
  • ❓ David Duarte (doubtful) β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❓ Everton Ribeiro (doubtful) β€” Injury

Sao Paulo

  • ❌ Andre Silva β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Ryan Francisco β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Alisson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Danielzinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucca Marques β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Ramon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Moura β€” Broken rib
  • ❌ D. Bobadilla β€” International duty
  • ❌ Carlos Coronel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Diaz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Franco β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Tapia β€” International duty
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jonathan Calleri β€” Contusion
  • ❌ Luciano β€” Overload
  • ❌ Pablo Maia β€” Face Injury
  • ❌ Sabino β€” Overload
  • ❌ Djhordney β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marcos Antonio β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Toloi β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ferreira β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Maik β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Robert Arboleda β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Cauly β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wendell β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Victor Sa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Osorio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ N. Bosshardt β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Buta β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Duarte β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ P. dos Santos β€” International duty
  • ❌ Iago Borduchi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rafael β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws