Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 22:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ Arena CondΓ‘ β€’ ☁️ 18.8Β°C, 12 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 77% 36.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 68% 68% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 82% 50.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 65% 8.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) Under 9.5 63% 54% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Chapecoense-sc 1.08 – 1.32 Fluminense Β· expected total 2.41

🧠 Match Preview

Chapecoense host Fluminense at Arena CondΓ‘ with the table telling a brutally one-sided story: the home side sit 20th on 18 points from 29 games, while the visitors are 4th on 51 points from 30. The stakes are equally lopsided, with Chapecoense scrapping for survival and Fluminense protecting a top-four position.

The model leans on recent form and expected goals. Chapecoense's last five read LLDDL, Fluminense's LWWLL. The goal expectation splits 1.0847 for the hosts against 1.3205 for the visitors, with recent xG at 1.25 and 1.67 respectively. The H2H record is unforgiving too: Fluminense won the April 2026 meeting 2-1, plus 3-0 and 1-2 wins in 2021, with two 1-1 draws in 2019. Both squads list extensive injury concerns, which adds noise to any read.

The headline tip is an away win at 36.8% with confidence 77, though the double chance X2 at 68% is the safer expression. Both teams to score sits at 50.7%, over 2.5 goals at 47.6%, and corners under 9.5 at 54% with an expected 8.7. The correct score model favours 0-1 at 8.5%, with 1-2 at 8.54 and 0-2 at 7.87 close behind. Value likely hides in the X2 and the unders on corners rather than the outright result.

The honest caveat: a 36.8% away probability is far from dominant, and with both teams carrying long injury lists, a low-scoring draw is a live risk that could sink any single-result bet.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Chapecoense-sc

Form (last 5)
LAtletico Paranaense (H) 1–4 Β· 12/10/2026LVitoria (A) 0–4 Β· 07/10/2026DAtletico Nacional (A) 1–1 Β· 26/09/2026DAtletico-MG (A) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LInternacional (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.10
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.01
xG against (recent avg)1.06
Elo strength rating1303
Players out26

Fluminense

Form (last 5)
LFlamengo (A) 0–1 Β· 11/10/2026WCoritiba (H) 4–0 Β· 09/10/2026WCorinthians (A) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026LPlatense (A) 1–2 Β· 15/09/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 1–3 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)0.81
xG against (recent avg)1.09
Elo strength rating1620
Players out26
Chapecoense-scFluminense
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.10
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.01
0.81
xG against (recent avg)
1.06
1.09
Elo strength rating
1303
1620
Players out
26
26

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Chapecoense-sc

Lost 2 in a row Winless 5
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Fluminense

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Chapecoense-sc

2nd worst attack (1.00 goals/game) Worst defence (2.10 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd worst clean sheets (2)

Fluminense

3rd best attack (1.60 goals/game) 3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Chapecoense-sc at home Β· Fluminense away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Chapecoense-sc (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–7L
W 2
D 5
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.40
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

Fluminense (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–6L
W 3
D 6
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Chapecoense-sc (home)Fluminense (away)
W 2
D 5
L 7
W 3
D 6
L 6
Played
14
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
2.40
1.50
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
3
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
8.5%
1–2
6.8%
0–2
6.3%
1–3
3%
0–3
2.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Chapecoense-sc 2 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Fluminense 5 wins Β· avg 3.1 goals Β· BTTS in 8 of 10

2
3
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense-sc Serie A
10 Dec 2021 Fluminense 3–0 Chapecoense-sc Serie A
08 Sep 2021 Chapecoense-sc 1–2 Fluminense Serie A
26 Oct 2019 Fluminense 1–1 Chapecoense-SC Serie A
13 Jun 2019 Chapecoense-SC 1–1 Fluminense Serie A
24 Sep 2018 Chapecoense-sc 1–2 Fluminense Serie A
26 May 2018 Fluminense 3–1 Chapecoense-sc Serie A
22 Oct 2017 Chapecoense-sc 2–0 Fluminense Serie A
03 Jul 2017 Fluminense 3–3 Chapecoense-sc Serie A
15 Sep 2016 Fluminense 1–2 Chapecoense-sc Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Chapecoense-sc

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 Atletico Paranaense Home 1–4 L
07/10 Vitoria Away 0–4 L
26/09 Atletico Nacional Away 1–1 D
19/09 Atletico-MG Away 1–1 D
12/09 Internacional Home 1–2 L

Fluminense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Flamengo Away 0–1 L
09/10 Coritiba Home 4–0 W
20/09 Corinthians Away 3–1 W
15/09 Platense Away 1–2 L
12/09 Atletico-MG Away 1–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Chapecoense-sc #20 Β· 18 pts β€”  Fluminense #4 Β· 51 pts

Chapecoense-sc

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–9D–17L
W 3
D 9
L 17
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score9
Yellow cards65
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.01
xG against (avg)1.06
Corners for (avg)3.80
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Fluminense

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–9D–7L
W 14
D 9
L 7
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score4
Yellow cards75
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.81
xG against (avg)1.09
Corners for (avg)1.70
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
Chapecoense-scFluminense
W 3
D 9
L 17
W 14
D 9
L 7
Played
29
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
2.10
1.20
Clean sheets
2
6
Failed to score
9
4
Yellow cards
65
75
Red cards
2
2
xG for (avg)
1.01
0.81
xG against (avg)
1.06
1.09
Corners for (avg)
3.80
1.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Chapecoense-sc

6
0-15
1
12
16-30
6
7
31-45
5
14
46-60
5
11
61-75
4
10
76-90
10
scored conceded

Fluminense

6
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
6
46-60
8
9
61-75
6
10
76-90
16
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Chapecoense-sc

  • ❌ Bruno Matias β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Mancha β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Neto Pessoa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rafael Thyere β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Robert Conceicao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marcos Vinicius β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mauricio Garcez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Camilo Reijers β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Everton β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Giovanni Augusto β€” Injury
  • ❌ Italo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Eduardo Doma β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Bruno Leonardo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Kauan β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Bolasie β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Victor Caetano β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Anderson β€” Injury
  • ❌ Joao Paulo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Max Alves β€” Injury
  • ❌ Rafael Carvalheira β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Bruno Tubarao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Bruno Pacheco β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Vinicius Balieiro β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Heitor β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Fernando β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Marcinho β€” Yellow Cards

Fluminense

  • ❌ G. Cano β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Hercules β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Y. Soteldo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Everaldo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Savarino β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Nonato β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Canobbio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ F. Bernal β€” Injury
  • ❌ PH Ganso β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Reis β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Acosta β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Martinelli β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Alisson β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ignacio β€” Broken Hand
  • ❌ R. Castillo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Freytes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Vitor Eudes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ John Kennedy β€” Red Card
  • ❌ J. Millan β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Guilherme Arana β€” Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Silva β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Guga β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Igor Rabello β€” Injury
  • ❌ Samuel Xavier β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Hulk β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rene β€” Inactive
  • ❓ Jemmes (doubtful) β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws