Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Chapecoense-sc vs Mirassol

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 • 01:30 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Arena Condá • 🌦 20.7°C, 15 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS: No
Model probability 69.6% · Market implied at best price ≈ 42% · EV at shown price +65.6%
Best odds 2.38 · Betfair William Hill 2.30Betano 2.27

Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.16 (67.4%, Model EV +45.6%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.26 → 2.04 ▼10% Dafabet2.0444.5% -9.2%
Double Chance X2 Betano1.3473.3% -1.8%
BTTS No Betfair2.3869.6% · Yes 30.4% +65.6%
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Pinnacle2.2354.3% · Over 45.7% +21.1%
Correct Score 0-1 Bet3659.5016.3% +54.9%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) Over 9.5 Pinnacle1.6152.3% · Under 47.7% -15.8%

🧠 Match Preview

Chapecoense-sc · Home

Chapecoense-sc have lost four of their last five, conceding 13 goals and failing to score in three of those matches. Their recent xG for of 1.06 contrasts with a model expected goals figure of 0.73 for this fixture.

Mirassol · Away

Mirassol have been steadier, with a 1-1 draw against Sao Paulo and a 2-0 win over Internacional among their last five. Their recent xG for of 1.52 is the higher of the two teams, though their model expected goals here is 0.83.

Mirassol edge a tight H2H

The latest head-to-head finished 1-1 in Mirassol's favour on the road, and the two meetings before that were also decided by a single goal, 1-0 and 0-1. Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in three of their last five, while Mirassol kept one clean sheet in five and drew 1-1 with RB Bragantino away. With both model expected goals figures below 1.0, a low-scoring contest fits the Under 2.5 lean. The evidence supports Mirassol win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Chapecoense-sc 0.73 – 0.83 Mirassol · expected total 1.56

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Chapecoense-sc

Form (last 5)
LWLLL
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)2.10
Best league winning streak this season1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.06
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.73
Elo strength rating1312
Players out17

Mirassol

Form (last 5)
LDWLD
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.52
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.61
Elo strength rating1601
Players out15
Chapecoense-scMirassol
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
2.10
1.40
Best league winning streak this season
1
4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.06
1.52
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.73
2.61
Elo strength rating
1312
1601
Players out
17
15

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Chapecoense-sc

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
3/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Mirassol

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Chapecoense-sc

Worst attack (1.00 goals/game, season) Worst defence (2.10 conceded/game, season) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%, last 6) Worst clean sheets (2, season)

Mirassol

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%, last 6) 2nd worst clean sheets (3, season)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Chapecoense-sc at home · Mirassol away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Chapecoense-sc (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–5D–7L
W 3
D 5
L 7
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

Mirassol (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–10L
W 2
D 4
L 10
Played16
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets0
Failed to score7
Chapecoense-sc (home)Mirassol (away)
W 3
D 5
L 7
W 2
D 4
L 10
Played
15
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
0.80
Goals conceded (avg)
2.30
1.60
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
3
7

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

0–1
16.26%
0–2
7.3%
1–2
5.3%
0–3
2.03%
1–3
1.47%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Chapecoense-sc 0 wins · 1 draw · Mirassol 4 wins · avg 1.2 goals · BTTS in 1 of 5

1
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
11 May 2026 Mirassol 1–1 Chapecoense-sc Serie A
25 Nov 2024 Mirassol 1–0 Chapecoense-sc Serie B
06 Aug 2024 Chapecoense-sc 0–1 Mirassol Serie B
29 Jul 2023 Chapecoense-sc 0–1 Mirassol Serie B
15 Apr 2023 Mirassol 1–0 Chapecoense-sc Serie B

📈 Recent Form

Chapecoense-sc

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
29/10 RB Bragantino Away 0–3 L
25/10 Fluminense Home 2–1 W
18/10 Botafogo Away 0–1 L
13/10 Atletico Paranaense Home 1–4 L
08/10 Vitoria Away 0–4 L
26/09 Atletico Nacional Away 1–1 D
19/09 Atletico-MG Away 1–1 D
12/09 Internacional Home 1–2 L
07/09 Corinthians Away 2–1 W
31/08 Gremio Away 1–3 L

Mirassol

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Corinthians Away 0–2 L
24/10 Sao Paulo Home 1–1 D
17/10 Internacional Home 2–0 W
12/10 Bahia Away 0–1 L
08/10 RB Bragantino Away 1–1 D
27/09 Uberlandia Away 4–0 W
19/09 Botafogo Home 2–0 W
13/09 Vitoria Home 2–2 D
06/09 Coritiba Away 2–1 W
03/09 Flamengo Away 0–2 L

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Chapecoense-sc #20 · 21 pts ·  Mirassol #16 · 37 pts

Chapecoense-sc

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–9D–19L
W 4
D 9
L 19
Played32
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score11
Yellow cards68
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.06
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.73
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

Mirassol

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–10D–14L
W 9
D 10
L 14
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score9
Yellow cards83
Red cards5
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.52
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.61
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/2
Chapecoense-scMirassol
W 4
D 9
L 19
W 9
D 10
L 14
Played
32
33
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
2.10
1.40
Clean sheets
2
3
Failed to score
11
9
Yellow cards
68
83
Red cards
2
5
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.06
1.52
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.73
2.61
Corners for (avg)
4.80
4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
2/2

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Chapecoense-sc

7
0-15
2
13
16-30
6
10
31-45
7
13
46-60
4
11
61-75
4
11
76-90
10
scored conceded

Mirassol

8
0-15
7
16-30
8
7
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
5
14
76-90
9
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Chapecoense-sc

  • ❌ Bruno Matias: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Mancha: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Everton: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Giovanni Augusto: Injury
  • ❌ Italo: Injury
  • ❌ Eduardo Doma: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Bruno Leonardo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Y. Bolasie: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Victor Caetano: Calf Injury
  • ❌ Anderson: Injury
  • ❌ Joao Paulo: Injury
  • ❌ Max Alves: Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Pacheco: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Heitor: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Fernando: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Marcinho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Yago Felipe: Suspended (Yellow Cards)

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Camilo Reijers (Loan agreement).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Neto Pessoa, Rafael Thyere, Robert Conceicao, Marcos Vinicius, Mauricio Garcez, Kauan, Rafael Carvalheira, Bruno Tubarao, Vinicius Balieiro; not counted as confirmed absences.

Mirassol

  • ❌ Edson Carioca: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Eduardo: Injury
  • ❌ Igor Carius: Injury
  • ❌ Yuri Lara: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Jose Aldo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Reinaldo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Negueba: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Neto Moura: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Igor Formiga: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Alex Muralha: Calf Injury
  • ❌ Walter: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Denilson: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Wallisson: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Joao Victor: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Bruno Santos: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❓ Renato Marques (doubtful): Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Andre Luis, Felipe Jonatan, Daniel Borges, Nathan Fogaca, Alesson; not counted as confirmed absences.

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Referee: L. Torezin