Corinthians vs Vitoria

Next match: Mon, 19 Oct 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 31 • Neo Quimica Arena • ☁️ 14.3°C, 11 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	84%	55.7%	1.68	1xBet	59.9%	-4.2 pp
Double Chance	1X	73%	74.9%	1.17	Bet365	84.1%	-9.2 pp
BTTS	No	83%	53.5%	1.75	William Hill	53.3%	+0.2 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	85%	56.6%	1.79	1xBet	54.1%	+2.5 pp
Correct Score	1-0	78%	15.8%	6.50	Bet365	7.6%	+8.2 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.)	Over 9.5	62%	53.7%	1.75	Betano	53.6%	+0.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Corinthians 0.92 – 0.61 Vitoria · expected total 1.54

🧠 Match Preview

Corinthians host Vitoria at the Neo Quimica Arena in Round 31 of Serie A, and the stakes are uncomfortable for both. Corinthians sit 16th on 32 points from 30 games, while Vitoria are 12th on 36 — a win for the visitors would open real daylight between the sides, which makes this a genuine six-pointer.

The model leans home despite Corinthians' dreadful form of five straight defeats. Vitoria arrive with a mixed LWLDW, and the underlying numbers explain the split: Corinthians' recent expected goals sit at 1.6 against Vitoria's 1.3, though the match-level goal expectancy is far lower at 0.9235 for the hosts and 0.614 for the away side. The H2H is tight — 0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 3-2 across the last five — and the injury lists are enormous on both sides, with Corinthians missing Yuri Alberto, Memphis Depay and many more, and Vitoria without Claudinho, Dudu and Renato Kayzer among a long absentee roll.

The headline tip is a home win at 55.7% probability, priced at 1.68. The double chance 1X lands at 74.9%, and the model also favours No on both teams scoring at 53.5% (1.75) and Under 2.5 goals at 56.6% (1.79). The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 15.8%, with 1-0 leading the top scores at 18.63. Corners lean Over 9.5 at 53.7% with an expected 10.3.

The honest caveat: five defeats in a row is a brutal signal, and with so many key players out, backing Corinthians at 1.68 carries real risk — the Under and BTTS No markets may be the safer expression of the same read.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Corinthians

Form (last 5)

LPalmeiras (A) 1–4 · 11/10/2026 LInternacional (A) 1–2 · 07/10/2026 LFluminense (H) 1–3 · 20/09/2026LEstudiantes L.P. (H) 0–1 · 17/09/2026LFlamengo (A) 1–2 · 13/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.30

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)0.78

xG against (recent avg)1.21

Elo strength rating1364

Players out30

Vitoria

Form (last 5)

LSao Paulo (A) 1–2 · 11/10/2026 WChapecoense-sc (H) 4–0 · 07/10/2026 LCruzeiro (H) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 DMirassol (A) 2–2 · 13/09/2026 WGremio (H) 1–0 · 07/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)1.50

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.47

xG against (recent avg)0.53

Elo strength rating1410

Players out33

CorinthiansVitoria

LPalmeiras (A) 1–4 · 11/10/2026 LInternacional (A) 1–2 · 07/10/2026 LFluminense (H) 1–3 · 20/09/2026LEstudiantes L.P. (H) 0–1 · 17/09/2026LFlamengo (A) 1–2 · 13/09/2026

LSao Paulo (A) 1–2 · 11/10/2026 WChapecoense-sc (H) 4–0 · 07/10/2026 LCruzeiro (H) 1–3 · 20/09/2026 DMirassol (A) 2–2 · 13/09/2026 WGremio (H) 1–0 · 07/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.00

1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.30

1.50

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.78

0.47

xG against (recent avg)

1.21

0.53

Elo strength rating

1364

1410

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Corinthians

Lost 5 in a row Winless 9

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Vitoria

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Corinthians

2nd worst attack (1.00 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Vitoria

3rd best clean sheets (11)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Corinthians at home · Vitoria away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Corinthians (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–7L

W 5

D 3

L 7

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets6

Failed to score5

Vitoria (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–5D–10L

D 5

L 10

Played15

Goals scored (avg)0.70

Goals conceded (avg)2.10

Clean sheets1

Failed to score6

Corinthians (home)Vitoria (away)

W 5

D 3

L 7

D 5

L 10

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

0.70

Goals conceded (avg)

1.10

2.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

15.8%

2–0

7.8%

2–1

4.8%

3–0

2.4%

3–1

1.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Corinthians 4 wins · 5 draws · Vitoria 1 win · avg 1.8 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
18 Apr 2026	Vitoria	0–0	Corinthians	Serie A
25 Oct 2025	Vitoria	0–1	Corinthians	Serie A
01 Jun 2025	Corinthians	0–0	Vitoria	Serie A
09 Nov 2024	Vitoria	1–2	Corinthians	Serie A
04 Jul 2024	Corinthians	3–2	Vitoria	Serie A
21 Oct 2018	Vitoria	2–2	Corinthians	Serie A
10 Jun 2018	Corinthians	0–0	Vitoria	Serie A
10 May 2018	Corinthians	3–1	Vitoria	Copa Do Brasil
25 Apr 2018	Vitoria	0–0	Corinthians	Copa Do Brasil
19 Aug 2017	Corinthians	0–1	Vitoria	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Corinthians

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Palmeiras	Away	1–4	L
07/10	Internacional	Away	1–2	L
20/09	Fluminense	Home	1–3	L
17/09	Estudiantes L.P.	Home	0–1	L
13/09	Flamengo	Away	1–2	L

Vitoria

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Sao Paulo	Away	1–2	L
07/10	Chapecoense-sc	Home	4–0	W
20/09	Cruzeiro	Home	1–3	L
13/09	Mirassol	Away	2–2	D
07/09	Gremio	Home	1–0	W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Corinthians #16 · 32 pts — Vitoria #12 · 36 pts

Corinthians

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–8D–14L

W 8

D 8

L 14

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets10

Failed to score7

Yellow cards79

Red cards4

xG for (avg)0.78

xG against (avg)1.21

Corners for (avg)4.70

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Vitoria

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–6D–14L

W 10

D 6

L 14

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets11

Failed to score9

Yellow cards72

Red cards3

xG for (avg)0.47

xG against (avg)0.53

Corners for (avg)5.30

Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

CorinthiansVitoria

W 8

D 8

L 14

W 10

D 6

L 14

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.00

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.50

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.78

0.47

xG against (avg)

1.21

0.53

Corners for (avg)

4.70

5.30

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

4/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Corinthians

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Vitoria

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Corinthians

❌ J. Martinez — Inactive
❌ Hugo — Injury
❌ Kaio Cesar — Injury
❌ Breno Bidon — Inactive
❌ Yuri Alberto — Inactive
❌ M. Pereira — Injury
❌ Felipe Longo — Inactive
❌ A. Carrillo — Inactive
❌ M. Depay — Inactive
❌ Gabriel Paulista — Inactive
❌ Allan — Loan agreement
❌ Gui Negao — Inactive
❌ Raniele — Yellow Cards
❌ Joao Pedro — Inactive
❌ Matheus Bidu — Yellow Cards
❌ Andre Ramalho — Yellow Cards
❌ Charles Rigon — Inactive
❌ P. Milans — Inactive
❌ Andre — Red Card
❌ Hugo Souza — Suspended
❌ Kayke — Knee Injury
❌ Gustavo Henrique — Yellow Cards
❌ Matheuzinho — Red Card
❌ Vitinho — Inactive
❌ J. Lingard — Personal Reasons
❌ Alex Santana — Thigh Injury
❌ F. Angileri — Yellow Cards
❌ Z. Labyad — Knee Injury
❌ R. Garro — Yellow Cards
❌ Dieguinho — Inactive

Vitoria

❌ Claudinho — Knee Injury
❌ Edu — Inactive
❌ Fintelman — Hip Injury
❌ Kauan Vitor — Inactive
❌ Lucas Arcanjo — Knee Injury
❌ R. Ramos — Knee Injury
❌ R. Lopez — Injury
❌ H. Pedro — Injury
❌ Dudu — Inactive
❌ Luan Candido — Inactive
❌ Yuri — Inactive
❌ Jamerson — Inactive
❌ Renato Kayzer — Inactive
❌ Riccieli — Calf Injury
❌ Baralhas — Yellow Cards
❌ Emmanuel Martinez — Yellow Cards
❌ Camutanga — Broken Leg
❌ Edenilson — Red Card
❌ Matheusinho — Injury
❌ Fabricio — Inactive
❌ Neris — Injury
❌ Nathan Mendes — Yellow Cards
❌ Gabriel — Inactive
❌ Caca — Inactive
❌ Matheuzinho — Yellow Cards
❌ Ramon — Yellow Cards
❌ Anderson — Knee Injury
❌ A. Cantalapiedra — Personal Reasons
❌ Ze Vitor — Yellow Cards
❌ Caique Goncalves — Yellow Cards
❌ Walace — Hamstring Injury
❌ Fabiano — Knee Injury
❌ D. Tarzia — Yellow Cards
❓ Marinho (doubtful) — Ankle Injury

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