Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Coritiba vs Vitoria

Next match: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 β€’ 22:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 33 β€’ EstΓ‘dio Couto Pereira β€’ 🌦 14.8Β°C, 8 km/h, 0.8mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 77% 37.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 70% 70.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 79% 45.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Coritiba 1.19 – 0.91 Vitoria Β· expected total 2.10

🧠 Match Preview

Coritiba host Vitoria at the EstΓ‘dio Couto Pereira on Friday in a mid-table Serie A clash with little separating the sides: 12th-placed Coritiba sit on 39 points from 31 games, with Vitoria 13th on 36 points from 30. With both clubs hovering in the lower-middle of the table, the stakes are modest but the points still matter for breathing room.

The model leans home, but not heavily. Coritiba's recent form reads LDLLD, and their recent expected goals of 1.16 sit just below the 1.1904 home figure the model carries into this one. Vitoria arrive with LWLDW and a notably higher recent xG of 1.64, though their away projection is a modest 0.9086. Both squads list extensive absences, with Tiago Coser doubtful for the hosts and Marinho and Lucas Silva doubtful for the visitors, which adds noise to any read on team strength.

The headline tip is a home win at 37.3 percent with confidence of 77, and the safer expression is the 1X double chance at 70.5 percent. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 49.2 percent, and both teams to score is tipped No at 45.6 percent. The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 10.8 percent, with 2-0 at 8.69 and 2-1 at 7.89 in the model's top scores. Corners offer a separate angle: over 9.5 is tipped with an expected 10.3 and 53.7 percent probability.

The honest caveat is that no bookmaker odds were supplied, so the value case against the market cannot be verified here, and a 37.3 percent home probability is a lean rather than a strong edge. Vitoria's superior recent xG is a real warning against overcommitting to the home side.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Coritiba

Form (last 5)
LAtletico-MG (A) 0–1 Β· 17/10/2026DBotafogo (H) 1–1 Β· 12/10/2026LFluminense (A) 0–4 Β· 09/10/2026LVasco DA Gama (A) 0–5 Β· 19/09/2026DAtletico Paranaense (H) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.98
xG against (recent avg)1.71
Elo strength rating1332
Players out26

Vitoria

Form (last 5)
LSao Paulo (A) 1–2 Β· 11/10/2026WChapecoense-sc (H) 4–0 Β· 07/10/2026LCruzeiro (H) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026DMirassol (A) 2–2 Β· 13/09/2026WGremio (H) 1–0 Β· 07/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.32
xG against (recent avg)0.90
Elo strength rating1410
Players out33
CoritibaVitoria
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.50
Win streak (best this season)
3
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.98
1.32
xG against (recent avg)
1.71
0.90
Elo strength rating
1332
1410
Players out
26
33

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Coritiba

Winless 6
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Vitoria

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Coritiba

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Vitoria

3rd best clean sheets (11)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Coritiba at home Β· Vitoria away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Coritiba (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–5L
W 5
D 5
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

Vitoria (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–5D–10L
D 5
L 10
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)2.10
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Coritiba (home)Vitoria (away)
W 5
D 5
L 5
D 5
L 10
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
2.10
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
3
6

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.8%
2–0
7.1%
2–1
6.4%
3–0
2.8%
3–1
2.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Coritiba 3 wins Β· 3 draws Β· Vitoria 4 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

3
3
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
02 May 2026 Vitoria 4–1 Coritiba Serie A
22 Sep 2021 Vitoria 0–0 Coritiba Serie B
23 Jun 2021 Coritiba 1–0 Vitoria Serie B
30 Nov 2019 Vitoria 1–2 Coritiba Serie B
27 Aug 2019 Coritiba 1–1 Vitoria Serie B
28 Aug 2017 Coritiba 0–1 Vitoria Serie A
28 May 2017 Vitoria 0–1 Coritiba Serie A
28 Nov 2016 Coritiba 0–1 Vitoria Serie A
03 Aug 2016 Vitoria 3–1 Coritiba Serie A
19 Nov 2014 Vitoria 1–1 Coritiba Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Coritiba

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Atletico-MG Away 0–1 L
12/10 Botafogo Home 1–1 D
09/10 Fluminense Away 0–4 L
19/09 Vasco DA Gama Away 0–5 L
12/09 Atletico Paranaense Home 3–3 D

Vitoria

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Sao Paulo Away 1–2 L
07/10 Chapecoense-sc Home 4–0 W
20/09 Cruzeiro Home 1–3 L
13/09 Mirassol Away 2–2 D
07/09 Gremio Home 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Coritiba #12 Β· 39 pts β€”  Vitoria #13 Β· 36 pts

Coritiba

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–9D–12L
W 10
D 9
L 12
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score10
Yellow cards55
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.98
xG against (avg)1.71
Corners for (avg)5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Vitoria

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–6D–14L
W 10
D 6
L 14
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets11
Failed to score9
Yellow cards72
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.32
xG against (avg)0.90
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0
CoritibaVitoria
W 10
D 9
L 12
W 10
D 6
L 14
Played
31
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.50
Clean sheets
6
11
Failed to score
10
9
Yellow cards
55
72
Red cards
8
3
xG for (avg)
0.98
1.32
xG against (avg)
1.71
0.90
Corners for (avg)
5.10
4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
4/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Coritiba

4
0-15
2
9
16-30
4
5
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
13
61-75
7
12
76-90
7
scored conceded

Vitoria

2
0-15
3
5
16-30
8
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
7
61-75
9
11
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Coritiba

  • ❌ Lucas Crepaldi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rodrigo Rodrigues β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Josue β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Wallisson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Benassi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Gomez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Pedro Morisco β€” Injury
  • ❌ Tinga β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jacy β€” Injury
  • ❌ Maicon β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Keno β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Lavega β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gustavo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Renato Marques β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Breno Lopes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Bruno Melo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fabinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Keiller β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Thiago Santos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Pedro Chermont β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Lucas Ronier β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Vini Paulista β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Pedro Rangel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ B. Ocampo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Lucas Taverna β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Richard β€” Inactive
  • ❓ Tiago Coser (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Vitoria

  • ❌ Claudinho β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Edu β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Fintelman β€” Hip Injury
  • ❌ Kauan Vitor β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Arcanjo β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Ramos β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Lopez β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Pedro β€” Injury
  • ❌ Dudu β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luan Candido β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Yuri β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jamerson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Renato Kayzer β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Riccieli β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Baralhas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Emmanuel Martinez β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Camutanga β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ Edenilson β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Matheusinho β€” Injury
  • ❌ Fabricio β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Neris β€” Injury
  • ❌ Nathan Mendes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Caca β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheuzinho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ramon β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Anderson β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Cantalapiedra β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ Ze Vitor β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Caique Goncalves β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Walace β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Fabiano β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Tarzia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❓ Marinho (doubtful) β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❓ Lucas Silva (doubtful) β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws