Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Vitoria vs Fluminense

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 02:00 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Barradao • ☀️ 26.2°C, 21 km/h clear

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Corners O/U 9.5: Under 9.5
Model probability 61.6% · Market implied at best price ≈ 55.6% · EV at shown price +10.9%
Best odds 1.80 · Bet365 1xBet 1.80Betano 1.80

Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 1.80 (61.6%, Model EV +10.9%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Draw 1xBet3.4029.2% -0.7%
Double Chance X2 Betano1.4764.8% -4.7%
BTTS Yes Bet3651.8046% · No 54% -17.2%
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 1xBet1.8156.2% · Over 43.8% +1.7%
Correct Score 1-1 Betano6.5014.7% -4.5%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.1 exp.) Under 9.5 Bet3651.8061.6% · Over 38.4% +10.9%

🧠 Match Preview

Vitoria · Home

Vitoria's recent home matches include a 1-1 draw with Atletico Paranaense and a 4-0 win over Chapecoense-sc, while their latest outing was a 0-2 loss at Coritiba. Their recent_xg_for of 1.64 sits above the model_expected_goals of 1.18 for this fixture.

Fluminense · Away

Fluminense have alternated results, beating Internacional 2-1 and Palmeiras 1-0 away but losing 1-2 to Chapecoense-sc on the road. Their recent_xg_for is 1.34 against a model_expected_goals of 1.03 here.

H2H draws point to stalemate

The latest head-to-head, on 9 May 2026, finished 2-2 between Fluminense and Vitoria, and the 2025 meeting in Vitoria ended 0-1. Vitoria have drawn 2 of their last 5, and Fluminense have no draws in their last 5, so the H2H pattern is the more telling signal. A 1-1 correct score carries 14.7% probability, consistent with the draw at 29.2%. The evidence supports Draw.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Vitoria 1.18 – 1.03 Fluminense · expected total 2.22

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Vitoria

Form (last 5)
LDDLW
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Best league winning streak this season2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.63
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.12
Elo strength rating1384
Players out24

Fluminense

Form (last 5)
WLWLL
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.83
Elo strength rating1579
Players out16
VitoriaFluminense
WLWLL
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
1.30
Best league winning streak this season
2
4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.63
1.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.12
1.83
Elo strength rating
1384
1579
Players out
24
16

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Vitoria

Winless 4
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Fluminense

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Vitoria

3rd best BTTS rate (67%, last 6) 3rd best clean sheets (11, season)

Fluminense

3rd best attack (1.60 goals/game, season) 3rd best BTTS rate (67%, last 6) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%, last 6)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Vitoria at home · Fluminense away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Vitoria (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–2D–4L
W 10
D 2
L 4
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets10
Failed to score3

Fluminense (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–6D–7L
W 3
D 6
L 7
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Vitoria (home)Fluminense (away)
W 10
D 2
L 4
W 3
D 6
L 7
Played
16
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.60
Clean sheets
10
1
Failed to score
3
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1
14.66%
0–0
12.25%
2–2
4.07%
3–3
0.55%
4–4
<0.1%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Fluminense 3 wins · 5 draws · Vitoria 2 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

3
5
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
10 May 2026 Fluminense 2–2 Vitoria Serie A
20 Sep 2025 Vitoria 0–1 Fluminense Serie A
21 Apr 2025 Fluminense 1–1 Vitoria Serie A
26 Oct 2024 Vitoria 2–1 Fluminense Serie A
28 Jun 2024 Fluminense 0–1 Vitoria Serie A
07 Sep 2018 Fluminense 0–0 Vitoria Serie A
06 May 2018 Vitoria 1–2 Fluminense Serie A
10 Sep 2017 Vitoria 2–2 Fluminense Serie A
04 Jun 2017 Fluminense 2–1 Vitoria Serie A
29 Oct 2016 Fluminense 2–2 Vitoria Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Vitoria

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Coritiba Away 0–2 L
24/10 Atletico Paranaense Home 1–1 D
20/10 Corinthians Away 1–1 D
11/10 Sao Paulo Away 1–2 L
08/10 Chapecoense-sc Home 4–0 W
20/09 Cruzeiro Home 1–3 L
13/09 Mirassol Away 2–2 D
08/09 Gremio Home 1–0 W
03/09 Vasco DA Gama Home 0–2 L
30/08 Atletico-MG Away 1–2 L

Fluminense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
29/10 Internacional Home 2–1 W
25/10 Chapecoense-sc Away 1–2 L
22/10 Palmeiras Away 1–0 W
18/10 Santos Home 1–2 L
15/10 Palmeiras Home 1–2 L
11/10 Flamengo Away 0–1 L
09/10 Coritiba Home 4–0 W
20/09 Corinthians Away 3–1 W
16/09 Platense Away 1–2 L
12/09 Atletico-MG Away 1–3 L

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Vitoria #14 · 38 pts ·  Fluminense #4 · 54 pts

Vitoria

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–8D–15L
W 10
D 8
L 15
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets11
Failed to score10
Yellow cards76
Red cards4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.63
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.12
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)4/0

Fluminense

Wins–Draws–Losses15W–9D–9L
W 15
D 9
L 9
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score4
Yellow cards80
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.83
Corners for (avg)—
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
VitoriaFluminense
W 10
D 8
L 15
W 15
D 9
L 9
Played
33
33
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.30
Clean sheets
11
6
Failed to score
10
4
Yellow cards
76
80
Red cards
4
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.63
1.34
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.12
1.83
Corners for (avg)
4.30
—
Penalties (scored/missed)
4/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Vitoria

2
0-15
3
5
16-30
10
12
31-45
6
6
46-60
5
9
61-75
9
11
76-90
5
scored conceded

Fluminense

7
0-15
3
1
16-30
9
5
31-45
8
10
46-60
8
9
61-75
6
10
76-90
18
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Vitoria

  • ❌ Claudinho: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Fintelman: Hip Injury
  • ❌ Lucas Arcanjo: Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Ramos: Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Lopez: Injury
  • ❌ H. Pedro: Injury
  • ❌ Riccieli: Calf Injury
  • ❌ Baralhas: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Emmanuel Martinez: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Camutanga: Broken Leg
  • ❌ Edenilson: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Matheusinho: Injury
  • ❌ Neris: Injury
  • ❌ Nathan Mendes: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Matheuzinho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Ramon: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Anderson: Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Cantalapiedra: Personal Reasons
  • ❌ Ze Vitor: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Caique Goncalves: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Walace: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Fabiano: Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Tarzia: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Rene: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❓ Marinho (doubtful): Ankle Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Edu, Kauan Vitor, Dudu, Luan Candido, Yuri, Jamerson, Renato Kayzer, Fabricio, Gabriel, Caca; not counted as confirmed absences.

Fluminense

  • ❌ Nonato: Injury
  • ❌ A. Canobbio: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ F. Bernal: Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Reis: Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Acosta: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Martinelli: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Alisson: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Ignacio: Broken Hand
  • ❌ J. Freytes: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ John Kennedy: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ J. Millan: Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Guilherme Arana: Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Silva: Thigh Injury
  • ❌ Guga: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Igor Rabello: Injury
  • ❌ Samuel Xavier: Shoulder Injury
  • ❓ Jemmes (doubtful): Inactive

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): G. Cano, Hercules, Y. Soteldo, Everaldo, J. Savarino, PH Ganso, R. Castillo, Vitor Eudes, Hulk, Rene; not counted as confirmed absences.

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