Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Santos vs Palmeiras

Next match: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 β€’ 22:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 33 β€’ Estadio Urbano Caldeira β€’ 🌦 20.5Β°C, 8 km/h, 0.2mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 77% 36.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 68% 67.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 80% 48.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 50.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 64% 7.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.2 exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Santos 1.13 – 1.36 Palmeiras Β· expected total 2.49

🧠 Match Preview

Santos host Palmeiras at Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Round 33 of Serie A, with the visitors chasing the title from second place on 63 points while the hosts sit eighth on 42. The stakes are clear: Palmeiras need wins to keep pressure at the top, and Santos are trying to hold their footing in the upper half.

The model leans away. Palmeiras are rated 36.7 percent to win outright with a confidence reading of 76, and the double chance X2 lands at 67.9 percent. Recent form supports the gap: Palmeiras have gone WWDWW across their last five, Santos LDWWW. The expected-goals numbers tell the same story, with the visitors at 1.3207 against Santos at 1.0874, and recent xG of 2.28 versus 1.49 sharpens that edge. The head-to-head is tighter than the table suggests, though, with a 0-0 in September and a 3-0 Palmeiras win in August among the last five.

Where value may hide: the model sees Under 2.5 at 51.7 percent and BTTS No at 49.1 percent, both marginal calls rather than convictions, so the safer angle is the X2 at 67.9 percent if the bookmaker prices the away side generously. The correct-score top pick is 0-1 at 10.6 percent, with 1-2 at 8.54 and 0-2 at 7.85. Corners offer a firmer read: Over 9.5 at 57.3 percent with an expected 12.2.

The honest caveat is the injury list, which is enormous on both sides and could distort the form and xG picture the model is leaning on. Treat the outright away win as the model's view, not a certainty.

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Santos

Form (last 5)
WFluminense (A) 2–1 Β· 18/10/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 1–2 Β· 11/10/2026DFlamengo (H) 2–2 Β· 08/10/2026WSao Paulo (A) 2–1 Β· 02/10/2026WRemo (A) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.26
xG against (recent avg)1.26
Elo strength rating1559
Players out30

Palmeiras

Form (last 5)
WAtletico Paranaense (A) 2–0 Β· 17/10/2026WFluminense (A) 2–1 Β· 15/10/2026WCorinthians (H) 4–1 Β· 11/10/2026WBahia (H) 1–0 Β· 09/10/2026DGremio (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)1.57
xG against (recent avg)0.53
Elo strength rating1737
Players out24
SantosPalmeiras
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
0.70
Win streak (best this season)
5
5
xG for (recent avg)
1.26
1.57
xG against (recent avg)
1.26
0.53
Elo strength rating
1559
1737
Players out
30
24

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Santos

BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Palmeiras

Won 4 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Santos

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Palmeiras

2nd best attack (1.70 goals/game) Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) 2nd worst BTTS rate (33%) Best clean sheets (14)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Santos at home Β· Palmeiras away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Santos (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–5D–4L
W 6
D 5
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2

Palmeiras (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–6D–2L
W 8
D 6
L 2
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets8
Failed to score3
Santos (home)Palmeiras (away)
W 6
D 5
L 4
W 8
D 6
L 2
Played
15
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
0.80
Clean sheets
3
8
Failed to score
2
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
7.9%
1–2
6.9%
0–2
6.1%
1–3
3.1%
0–3
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Palmeiras 6 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Santos 2 wins Β· avg 1.8 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 10

6
2
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
03 Sep 2026 Santos 0–0 Palmeiras Copa Do Brasil
27 Aug 2026 Palmeiras 3–0 Santos Copa Do Brasil
02 May 2026 Palmeiras 1–1 Santos Serie A
14 Jan 2026 Palmeiras 1–0 Santos Paulista - A1
16 Nov 2025 Santos 1–0 Palmeiras Serie A
07 Nov 2025 Palmeiras 2–0 Santos Serie A
23 Jan 2025 Santos 1–2 Palmeiras Paulista - A1
07 Apr 2024 Palmeiras 2–0 Santos Paulista - A1
31 Mar 2024 Santos 1–0 Palmeiras Paulista - A1
28 Jan 2024 Palmeiras 2–1 Santos Paulista - A1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Santos

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Fluminense Away 2–1 W
11/10 Atletico-MG Away 1–2 L
08/10 Flamengo Home 2–2 D
02/10 Sao Paulo Away 2–1 W
19/09 Remo Away 2–1 W

Palmeiras

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Atletico Paranaense Away 2–0 W
15/10 Fluminense Away 2–1 W
11/10 Corinthians Home 4–1 W
09/10 Bahia Home 1–0 W
20/09 Gremio Away 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Santos #8 Β· 45 pts β€”  Palmeiras #1 Β· 66 pts

Santos

Wins–Draws–Losses12W–9D–10L
W 12
D 9
L 10
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets6
Failed to score3
Yellow cards93
Red cards4
xG for (avg)1.26
xG against (avg)1.26
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)8/0

Palmeiras

Wins–Draws–Losses19W–9D–3L
W 19
D 9
L 3
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets14
Failed to score4
Yellow cards70
Red cards6
xG for (avg)1.57
xG against (avg)0.53
Corners for (avg)8.10
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1
SantosPalmeiras
W 12
D 9
L 10
W 19
D 9
L 3
Played
31
31
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
0.70
Clean sheets
6
14
Failed to score
3
4
Yellow cards
93
70
Red cards
4
6
xG for (avg)
1.26
1.57
xG against (avg)
1.26
0.53
Corners for (avg)
4.50
8.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
8/0
2/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Santos

3
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
13
8
61-75
6
14
76-90
12
scored conceded

Palmeiras

2
0-15
10
1
16-30
10
5
31-45
6
7
46-60
10
3
61-75
9
6
76-90
7
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Santos

  • ❌ A. Frias β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mayke β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Neymar β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Thaciano β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Tiquinho Soares β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Willian Arao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gustavo Henrique β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Duarte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gabriel Barbosa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Ze Rafael β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luan Peres β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Vinicius Lira β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Diaz β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Gabriel Menino β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo Falcao β€” Injury
  • ❌ Igor Vinicius β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rony β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Barreal β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Escobar β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ T. Rincon β€” Health problems
  • ❌ Gabriel Brazao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Schmidt β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Rollheiser β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Moises β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Verissimo β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Pepe Fermino β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gabriel Bontempo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Coutinho β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ Everton β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Melo β€” Muscle Injury

Palmeiras

  • ❌ Felipe Anderson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Figueiredo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Evangelista β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ J. Arias β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mauricio β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Murilo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Vitor Roque β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Piquerez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jefte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon Freitas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Allan Elias β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Benedetti β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Fuchs β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ R. Sosa β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Andreas Pereira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Carlos Miguel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Giay β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Gomez β€” International duty
  • ❌ J. Lopez β€” International duty
  • ❌ E. Martinez β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. Barboza β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Khellven β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Gabriel β€” Red Card

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws