Birmingham vs Millwall
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 14 • St. Andrew's Stadium • ☁️ 9.3°C, 15 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.06 → 2.02 ▼2% | Betano2.02 | 50.4% | +1.8% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.31 | 75.8% | -0.7% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.67 | 56.8% · No 43.2% | -5.1% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Pinnacle1.83 | 53.6% · Under 46.4% | -1.9% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano9.00 | 9.8% | -11.8% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 1xBet1.61 | 65.8% · Under 34.2% | +5.9% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Birmingham · Home
Birmingham have won four of their last five, scoring 11 and conceding only 2, with home wins of 3-0 over QPR and 4-0 over Preston. Their recent xG for of 2.19 across up to five recent matches with recorded statistics supports that scoring output, though the model expected goals for this fixture is 1.8.
Millwall · Away
Millwall's latest result was a 4-1 home win over Derby, but they lost 1-2 at Portsmouth and 0-1 at home to Swansea in this run. Their recent xG for of 1.54 sits against a model expected goals of 1.1 for this away trip.
Home dominance in H2H meetings
The latest head-to-head is a warning rather than a guide: Millwall won 3-0 at home on 25 Feb 2026. Yet the reverse fixture on 4 Nov 2025 ended 4-0 to Birmingham, and the venue split across these three meetings is stark, with each home side winning. Birmingham's run of 11 goals in five, including three clean sheets, makes a home win realistic despite that Millwall result. The evidence supports Birmingham win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:47 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Birmingham 1.80 – 1.10 Millwall · expected total 2.90
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Birmingham
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Birmingham
Millwall
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Birmingham
Millwall
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Birmingham at home · Millwall away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Birmingham (home)
Millwall (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Birmingham 2 wins · 4 draws · Millwall 4 wins · avg 2.1 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | Millwall | 3–0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 04 Nov 2025 | Birmingham | 4–0 | Millwall | Championship |
| 09 Mar 2024 | Millwall | 1–0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Birmingham | 1–1 | Millwall | Championship |
| 18 Apr 2023 | Millwall | 0–1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 02 Nov 2022 | Birmingham | 0–0 | Millwall | Championship |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Birmingham | 2–2 | Millwall | Championship |
| 04 Dec 2021 | Millwall | 3–1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 17 Feb 2021 | Millwall | 2–0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 28 Nov 2020 | Birmingham | 0–0 | Millwall | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Birmingham
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Lincoln | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Cardiff | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | QPR | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 13/10 | Preston | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 10/10 | West Brom | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Middlesbrough | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Derby | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 09/09 | Norwich | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Wolves | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 01/09 | Southampton | Home | 1–1 | D |
Millwall
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Derby | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Portsmouth | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Lincoln | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 13/10 | Swansea | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 10/10 | Preston | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | West Ham | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 15/09 | Middlesbrough | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Blackburn | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 08/09 | Newcastle | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | Bolton | Home | 4–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Birmingham #6 · 23 pts · Millwall #12 · 18 pts
Birmingham
Millwall
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Birmingham
Millwall
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Birmingham
- ❌ L. Buchanan: Knee Injury
- ❌ M. Ducksch: Calf Injury
- ❌ T. Gardner-Hickman: Injury
- ❌ M. Leonard: Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ D. Gray: Injury
- ❌ P. Roberts: Health problems
- ❌ S. Wright: Off the roster
- ❌ Paik Seung-Ho: Health problems
- ❓ A. Priske (doubtful): Health problems
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): M. Bird, J. E. Solis Romero; not counted as confirmed absences.
Millwall
- ❌ T. Crama: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Doughty: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ M. Ivanovic: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ D. Mazou-Sacko: Calf Injury
- ❌ M. Servais: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ F. Azeez: Abdominal strain
- ❌ M. Luongo: Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Leonard: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Coburn: Muscle Injury
- ❌ C. De Norre: Injury
- ❌ R. Esse: Ankle Injury
- ❌ T. Arconte: Ankle Injury
- ❌ F. Marschall: Injury
- ❌ J. Metcalfe: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): L. Cundle, L. Jensen, K. Lisbie; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: David Webb