Derby vs Bolton
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • Pride Park • ☁️ 8.1°C, 9 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.25 (58.4%, Model EV +31.4%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.25 → 2.23 ▼1% | 1xBet2.23 | 41.5% | -7.5% |
| Double Chance | 12 | William Hill1.30 | 72% | -6.4% |
| BTTS | No | William Hill2.25 | 58.4% · Yes 41.6% | +31.4% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Betano2.12 | 51.8% · Over 48.2% | +9.8% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Bet3659.50 | 12.7% | +20.7% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | 1xBet1.60 | 52.5% · Under 47.5% | -16% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Derby · Home
Derby have taken only two points from their last five matches, with the 1-0 home win over Bolton on 16 Mar 2024 standing as their clearest recent positive. Their recent xG for of 0.95 is modest, yet the model gives them 1.05 expected goals here.
Bolton · Away
Bolton have scored seven goals across their last five but conceded eleven, including the 1-5 home defeat to Middlesbrough. Their recent xG for of 1.7 is higher than Derby's, so this is not a straightforward form gap.
Derby's Narrow H2H Edge
The latest head-to-head is the most telling angle: Derby beat Bolton 1-0 at home on 16 Mar 2024, and the two earlier meetings were also decided by a single goal. Derby's recent record of 0 wins in five is poor, but Bolton's away form includes a 0-0 at Southampton and a 3-1 win at Wolves, so the margin is likely to stay small. A 1-0 correct score fits both the tight H2H pattern and the Under 2.5 lean. The evidence supports Derby win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 10:46 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Derby 1.05 – 0.96 Bolton · expected total 2.01
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Derby
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Derby
Bolton
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Derby
Bolton
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Derby at home · Bolton away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Derby (home)
Bolton (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Bolton 2 wins · 2 draws · Derby 6 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 2024 | Derby | 1–0 | Bolton | League One |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Bolton | 2–1 | Derby | League One |
| 21 Jan 2023 | Derby | 2–1 | Bolton | League One |
| 27 Dec 2022 | Bolton | 0–0 | Derby | League One |
| 13 Apr 2019 | Derby | 4–0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 29 Sep 2018 | Bolton | 1–0 | Derby | Championship |
| 07 Apr 2018 | Derby | 3–0 | Bolton | Championship |
| 19 Aug 2017 | Bolton | 1–2 | Derby | Championship |
| 09 Apr 2016 | Derby | 4–1 | Bolton | Championship |
| 08 Aug 2015 | Bolton | 0–0 | Derby | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Millwall | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 24/10 | Sheffield Utd | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Stoke City | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 14/10 | QPR | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 10/10 | Wrexham | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth | Away | 2–0 | W |
Bolton
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Bristol City | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 23/10 | Middlesbrough | Home | 1–5 | L |
| 17/10 | Southampton | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 13/10 | Wolves | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Stoke City | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Norwich | Away | 4–3 | W |
| 12/09 | Cardiff | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 08/09 | West Ham | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Millwall | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 01/09 | Sheffield Utd | Away | 2–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Derby #23 · 7 pts · Bolton #19 · 14 pts
Derby
Bolton
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Derby
Bolton
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Derby
- ❌ P. Agyemang: Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ M. Clarke: Calf Injury
- ❌ D. Murkin: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ S. Szmodics: Thigh Injury
- ❌ L. Travis: Injury
- ❌ C. Forsyth: Knee Injury
- ❌ F. Bilbija: Back Injury
- ❌ R. Brewster: Injury
- ❌ H. Meister: Concussion
- ❌ J. Widell Zetterstrom: Knee Injury
- ❌ C. Taylor: Injury
- ❌ S. Langas: Injury
- ❌ D. Sanderson: Suspended (Red Card)
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): C. Morris, E. Cashin, M. Johnston; not counted as confirmed absences.
Bolton
- ❌ R. Rodrigues: Knee Injury
- ❌ X. Simons: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ L. Brunt: Injury
- ❌ C. Forino-Joseph: Groin Injury
- ❌ E. Erhahon: Thigh Injury
- ❌ R. Hardie: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. McAtee: Knee Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): L. Stephenson, J. Nelson; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws