Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Wed, 04 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 14 • Racecourse Ground
Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 2.23 (53.6%, Model EV +19.5%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 1.91 → 1.8 ▼6% | Dafabet1.80 | 54.2% | -2.4% |
| Double Chance | X2 | Betano1.25 | 78% | -2.5% |
| BTTS | No | William Hill2.25 | 47.9% · Yes 52.1% | +7.8% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Pinnacle2.32 | 44.6% · Over 55.4% | +3.5% |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | Bet3659.00 | 10.5% | -5.5% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 1xBet2.23 | 53.6% · Over 46.4% | +19.5% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Wrexham · Home
Wrexham have won only one of their last five, and their two home matches in that run split between a 4-1 win over Preston and a 1-2 loss to West Brom. They failed to score in two of those five matches and have no clean sheet in the sequence.
Middlesbrough · Away
Middlesbrough are unbeaten across their last five, with 14 goals scored and only 5 conceded, including a 5-1 win at Bolton and a 3-0 home win over Charlton. Their recent xG for of 1.91 sits well above Wrexham's 0.79 over the same recorded period.
Boro edge the recent H2H
The latest head-to-head, on 7 Aug 2026, finished 1-0 to Middlesbrough, while the two meetings before it ended 2-2 and 1-1. Middlesbrough's five-match run of four wins and a draw, with 14 goals for and 5 against, contrasts with Wrexham's single win and two matches without scoring. The model gives Middlesbrough 1.59 expected goals against Wrexham's 1.02, and the correct-score pick of 0-1 fits a low-scoring away edge. The evidence supports Middlesbrough win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Wrexham 1.02 – 1.59 Middlesbrough · expected total 2.61
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Wrexham
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Wrexham at home · Middlesbrough away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Wrexham (home)
Middlesbrough (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Middlesbrough 1 win · 2 draws · Wrexham 0 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 2 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug 2026 | Middlesbrough | 1–0 | Wrexham | League Cup |
| 02 May 2026 | Wrexham | 2–2 | Middlesbrough | Championship |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Middlesbrough | 1–1 | Wrexham | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Wrexham
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Sheffield Utd | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 24/10 | Blackburn | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Preston | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 13/10 | West Brom | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Derby | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Southampton | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 11/09 | West Ham | Away | 0–6 | L |
| 08/09 | Burnley | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Swansea | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 02/09 | Millwall | Away | 3–0 | W |
Middlesbrough
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Charlton | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 23/10 | Bolton | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 17/10 | Cardiff | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 13/10 | Stoke City | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 10/10 | Wolves | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Birmingham | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 15/09 | Millwall | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Norwich | Home | 4–3 | W |
| 08/09 | Crystal Palace | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 05/09 | QPR | Away | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Wrexham #18 · 14 pts · Middlesbrough #1 · 28 pts
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Wrexham
- ❌ L. Cacace: Calf Injury
- ❌ S. Revan: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Windass: Calf Injury
- ❌ G. Thomason: Thigh Injury
- ❌ M. Cleworth: Muscle Injury
- ❌ O. Rathbone: Ankle Injury
- ❌ M. James: Back Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): B. Sheaf, N. Broadhead; not counted as confirmed absences.
Middlesbrough
- ❌ T. Conway: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Morris: Injury
- ❌ D. Strelec: Health problems
- ❌ A. Jones: Calf Injury
- ❌ R. Pukstas: Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): A. Bangura (Coach's decision), A. Phillips (Lacking Match Fitness).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Sarmiento; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws