Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Dunfermline vs Partick

Next match: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 8 β€’ East End Park β€’ β˜€οΈ 24.5Β°C, 21 km/h clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 32.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 67% 66.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 80% 48% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 65% 8.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 68% 28% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Dunfermline 1.23 – 1.11 Partick Β· expected total 2.34

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Dunfermline host Partick at East End Park on Tuesday night sitting sixth in the Championship on 13 points from 8 games, while the visitors arrive third on 18 points from 9. The gap in the table gives Partick the stronger platform, but the model still leans toward the home side, handing Dunfermline a 32.7 percent win probability at 75 confidence, with the draw at 28 percent on 68 confidence. The double chance covering the home win or draw lands at 66.7 percent, which is where the safest angle sits.

Form reads DLWWD for Dunfermline against WWDLW for Partick, so both teams arrive in reasonable shape, and with no injuries listed on either side, the lineups should be close to full strength. The goal expectation is tight: 1.2342 for Dunfermline and 1.1099 for Partick, which explains why Under 2.5 carries 51.8 percent and why the correct score model points to 1-0 at 8.4 percent, with 1-0 leading the top scores at 10.53 ahead of 2-1 at 8.11 and 2-0 at 7.31. Both teams to score sits at 48 percent, so the model is not convinced this becomes an open game.

The value question is whether bookmakers price Dunfermline shorter than that 32.7 percent home probability suggests, because if the home odds imply less than roughly a one-in-three chance, the win tip holds an edge. The double chance at 66.7 percent is the more reliable play, and the draw at 28 percent is worth a look if the market drifts toward Partick. The honest caveat: Partick are the higher-ranked side with more points, and the recent head-to-head record shows Dunfermline without a win in the last five meetings, so the home lean is a model call rather than a formality.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Dunfermline

Form (last 5)
DAyr Utd (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026LAberdeen (H) 1–4 Β· 03/10/2026WMorton (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WQueen's Park (H) 2–0 Β· 12/09/2026DArbroath (A) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1561

Partick

Form (last 5)
WLivingston (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WArbroath (H) 3–0 Β· 03/10/2026DRaith Rovers (H) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026LStenhousemuir (A) 0–1 Β· 15/09/2026WAyr Utd (H) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.30
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1590
DunfermlinePartick
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.60
0.30
Win streak (best this season)
2
2
Elo strength rating
1561
1590

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Dunfermline

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Partick

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Dunfermline

3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 3rd best BTTS rate (50%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Partick

Best defence (0.30 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (6)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Dunfermline at home Β· Partick away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Dunfermline (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–0L
W 2
D 1
Played3
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0

Partick (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–1L
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Dunfermline (home)Partick (away)
W 2
D 1
W 2
D 1
L 1
Played
3
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.80
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
0
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
8.4%
2–1
6.5%
2–0
5.8%
3–1
2.7%
3–0
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Dunfermline 1 win Β· 3 draws Β· Partick 6 wins Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

1
3
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 May 2026 Partick 2–1 Dunfermline Premiership
12 May 2026 Dunfermline 1–1 Partick Premiership
11 Apr 2026 Partick 2–0 Dunfermline Championship
24 Feb 2026 Dunfermline 2–2 Partick Championship
25 Nov 2025 Partick 1–0 Dunfermline Championship
27 Sep 2025 Dunfermline 0–2 Partick Championship
19 Apr 2025 Dunfermline 0–0 Partick Championship
04 Jan 2025 Partick 1–4 Dunfermline Championship
02 Nov 2024 Dunfermline 0–1 Partick Championship
21 Sep 2024 Partick 1–0 Dunfermline Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Dunfermline

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Ayr Utd Away 1–1 D
03/10 Aberdeen Home 1–4 L
19/09 Morton Away 1–0 W
12/09 Queen's Park Home 2–0 W
05/09 Arbroath Away 1–1 D

Partick

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Livingston Away 2–1 W
03/10 Arbroath Home 3–0 W
19/09 Raith Rovers Home 0–0 D
15/09 Stenhousemuir Away 0–1 L
05/09 Ayr Utd Home 1–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Dunfermline #6 Β· 13 pts β€”  Partick #3 Β· 18 pts

Dunfermline

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–1L
W 3
D 4
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards14
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Partick

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–1L
W 5
D 3
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score3
Yellow cards15
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
DunfermlinePartick
W 3
D 4
L 1
W 5
D 3
L 1
Played
8
9
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
0.30
Clean sheets
4
6
Failed to score
2
3
Yellow cards
14
15
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Dunfermline

0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Partick

0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws