Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline

Friday night Championship football brings Raith Rovers and Dunfermline together for round 14, with the hosts sitting second on 21 points from 11 games and the visitors sixth on 14 points from 9. The stakes are clear: Raith can keep pace at the top, while Dunfermline need a result to close a seven-point gap on the promotion places.

The model leans heavily toward the home side, giving Raith a 63.8 percent win probability at confidence 87. Their recent form reads DWWLD, and the expected goals split is telling: 1.7879 for Raith against just 0.7998 for Dunfermline. The visitors arrive on DDLWW, so there is some momentum, but the underlying numbers favour the hosts. No injuries are listed on either side, which keeps both squads at full strength.

The headline tip is a home win, and the double chance 1X at 81.7 percent is the safer route if you want to reduce variance. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 carries 52.4 percent, and both teams to score is tipped No at 51.3 percent. The correct-score model points to 1-0 as the most likely outcome at 12.4 percent, with 2-0 close behind at 12.05. Where value may hide depends on the bookmaker prices, which are not quoted here, so compare the home win and Under 2.5 lines against those model percentages before committing.

The honest caveat is the head-to-head record. Dunfermline have won three of the last five meetings, including 1-0 and 3-0 victories, and Raith's home wins in that run were 2-0. Recent history cuts against the model's confidence, so treat the home win as a strong lean rather than a certainty.