Stenhousemuir vs Raith Rovers
Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Ochilview Park • ⛅ 12.1°C, 7 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 3.25 → 3.04 ▼6% | 74% | 31.2% | 3.04 | 1xBet | 31% | +0.2 pp |
| Double Chance | 1X | 71% | 72.1% | 1.57 | Betfair | 60.2% | +11.9 pp |
| BTTS | Yes | 81% | 49% | 1.91 | William Hill | 49.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 48.9% | 2.28 | Pinnacle | 41.5% | +7.4 pp |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | 63% | 7.6% | 12.00 | Bet365 | 4.1% | +3.5 pp |
| Draw (value pick) | Draw | 62% | 27.2% | 3.20 | Dafabet | 29.3% | -2.1 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.82 – 1.24 Raith Rovers · expected total 3.06
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans toward the home side, giving Stenhousemuir a 31.2 percent win probability at odds of 3.04, with confidence rated 74. Their recent form reads LWWWL, while Raith arrive with WWLDW. The goal expectation tilts the same way: 1.8221 for the hosts against 1.2411 for the visitors, suggesting Stenhousemuir carry the sharper attacking edge. Neither side reports injuries, so both should be at full strength. The head-to-head is tighter than the table suggests, with the last two meetings finishing 1-1, including this season's 1-1 on 01 Aug 2026.
Where might value hide? The double chance 1X is rated 72.1 percent, a solid anchor if you want to avoid the outright risk. Both teams to score comes in at 49 percent with odds of 1.91, and over 2.5 goals at 48.9 percent with odds of 2.28 — the latter looks the more generously priced of the two. The draw is priced at 27.2 percent with confidence 62, and the model's favoured correct score is 2-1 at 7.6 percent, part of a top-score cluster that also includes 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 and 3-0.
The honest caveat: a 31.2 percent home win is a lean, not a lock, and Raith's 20-point haul shows they travel well. Treat the outright as a value play, not a banker.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship
Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Stenhousemuir at home · Raith Rovers away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Stenhousemuir (home)
Raith Rovers (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Raith Rovers 3 wins · 2 draws · Stenhousemuir 0 wins · avg 3.2 goals · BTTS in 4 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug 2026 | Raith Rovers | 1–1 | Stenhousemuir | Championship |
| 06 Apr 2019 | Stenhousemuir | 1–1 | Raith Rovers | League One |
| 05 Jan 2019 | Raith Rovers | 5–1 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
| 17 Nov 2018 | Stenhousemuir | 1–3 | Raith Rovers | League One |
| 11 Aug 2018 | Raith Rovers | 2–0 | Stenhousemuir | League One |
📈 Recent Form
Stenhousemuir
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Inverness CT | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 25/09 | Ayr Utd | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Arbroath | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 15/09 | Partick | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Heart Of Midlothian | Home | 0–3 | L |
Raith Rovers
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Queen's Park | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Morton | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 25/09 | Livingston | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Partick | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 12/09 | Arbroath | Home | 4–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Championship
Stenhousemuir #1 · 22 pts — Raith Rovers #2 · 20 pts
Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws