Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Stenhousemuir vs Dunfermline

Next match: Tue, 27 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:45 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Ochilview Park

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 86% 61.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 75% 77.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 49.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 48% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Stenhousemuir 2.14 – 1.18 Dunfermline Β· expected total 3.31

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Stenhousemuir host Dunfermline at Ochilview Park on Tuesday night in Round 9 of the Championship, and the stakes are clear: the league leaders can protect top spot against a mid-table visitor. Stenhousemuir sit first on 22 points from 9 games, while Dunfermline are 6th with 13 points from 8.

The model leans heavily on the home side's form and output. Stenhousemuir's last five read LWWWL, and their attacking projection of 2.1392 goals dwarfs Dunfermline's 1.1756. No injuries are listed for either squad, so there is no obvious disruption to factor in. History, however, offers a warning: the last five head-to-heads all went Dunfermline's way, including a 3-0 win in January 2025 and a 4-1 in 2021.

The headline tip is a home win at 61.7% with confidence of 86. Double chance 1X is rated 77.6%, a safer route if you expect a tight contest. Both teams to score lands at 49.9% and Over 2.5 at 48%, so the goals markets are close to coin flips. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 9.84%, followed by 2-0 at 8.37%, 3-1 at 7.02%, 1-0 at 6.91% and 3-0 at 5.97%.

Value may hide in the home-win price if bookmakers over-weight that grim head-to-head record. The honest caveat: those five straight defeats to Dunfermline are real, and a 61.7% win probability is not a guarantee.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Stenhousemuir

Form (last 5)
LInverness CT (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WAyr Utd (A) 1–0 Β· 25/09/2026WArbroath (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WPartick (H) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026LHeart Of Midlothian (H) 0–3 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.40
Win streak (best this season)7
Elo strength rating1396

Dunfermline

Form (last 5)
DAyr Utd (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026LAberdeen (H) 1–4 Β· 03/10/2026WMorton (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WQueen's Park (H) 2–0 Β· 12/09/2026DArbroath (A) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1561
StenhousemuirDunfermline
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.40
0.60
Win streak (best this season)
7
2
Elo strength rating
1396
1561

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Stenhousemuir

BTTS
0/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Dunfermline

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Stenhousemuir

3rd best attack (1.30 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.40 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (0%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) Best clean sheets (6)

Dunfermline

3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 3rd best BTTS rate (50%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Stenhousemuir at home Β· Dunfermline away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Stenhousemuir (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–0D–0L
W 4
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score0

Dunfermline (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–1L
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Stenhousemuir (home)Dunfermline (away)
W 4
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.80
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
0
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.8%
2–0
6.6%
3–1
5.6%
1–0
5.5%
3–0
4.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Dunfermline 6 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Stenhousemuir 0 wins Β· avg 3.7 goals Β· BTTS in 1 of 6

6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Jan 2025 Dunfermline 3–0 Stenhousemuir FA Cup
24 Jul 2021 Dunfermline 4–1 Stenhousemuir League Cup
05 Mar 2016 Dunfermline 5–0 Stenhousemuir League One
06 Feb 2016 Stenhousemuir 0–3 Dunfermline League One
19 Dec 2015 Dunfermline 1–0 Stenhousemuir League One
19 Sep 2015 Stenhousemuir 0–5 Dunfermline League One

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Stenhousemuir

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Inverness CT Away 0–2 L
25/09 Ayr Utd Away 1–0 W
19/09 Arbroath Home 1–0 W
15/09 Partick Home 1–0 W
11/09 Heart Of Midlothian Home 0–3 L

Dunfermline

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Ayr Utd Away 1–1 D
03/10 Aberdeen Home 1–4 L
19/09 Morton Away 1–0 W
12/09 Queen's Park Home 2–0 W
05/09 Arbroath Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Stenhousemuir #1 Β· 22 pts β€”  Dunfermline #6 Β· 13 pts

Stenhousemuir

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–1D–1L
W 7
D 1
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.40
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1
Yellow cards21
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Dunfermline

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–1L
W 3
D 4
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards14
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
StenhousemuirDunfermline
W 7
D 1
L 1
W 3
D 4
L 1
Played
9
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
0.40
0.60
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
1
2
Yellow cards
21
14
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Stenhousemuir

0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
76-90
3
scored conceded

Dunfermline

0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws