Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Gremio vs Bahia

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Thu, 19 Nov 2026 • 03:30 UTC+3 • Round 35 • Arena do Grêmio

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Draw Current price not available29.9% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available69.6% —
BTTS Yes Current price not available50.5% · No 49.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available56.1% · Over 43.9% —
Correct Score 1-1 Current price not available14.2% —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.1 exp.) Over 9.5 Current price not available54.7% · Under 45.3% —

🧠 Match Preview

Gremio · Home

Gremio have won two of their last five, including a 2-0 home win over Atletico Paranaense and a 1-0 away win at Coritiba, though they lost 2-4 at home to Cruzeiro. Their recent weighted xG of 1.51 sits above a model expected goals figure of 1.31 for this fixture.

Bahia · Away

Bahia's last five include a 3-2 home win over Sao Paulo and a 1-1 draw at Santos, but also a 0-3 home loss to Flamengo and a 0-1 defeat at Palmeiras, failing to score in two of those matches. Their recent weighted xG of 2.08 is notably higher than their model expected goals of 1.12 here.

H2H points to another tight draw

The latest head-to-head, on 17 May 2026, finished 1-1 between these sides, and the most recent meeting hosted by Gremio ended 1-0. Gremio drew two of their last five, while Bahia drew one and lost two, and Bahia failed to score in two of those five. The 1-1 correct score carries 14.2% and BTTS Yes 50.5%, consistent with a close, low-margin contest. The evidence supports Draw.

Published 01 Nov 2026 04:46 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Gremio 1.31 – 1.12 Bahia · expected total 2.43

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Gremio

Form (last 5)
WWLDD
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Best league winning streak this season2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.51
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.07
Elo strength rating1498
Players out22

Bahia

Form (last 5)
WDLWL
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.08
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.70
Elo strength rating1592
Players out22
GremioBahia
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.30
Best league winning streak this season
2
4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.51
2.08
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.07
1.70
Elo strength rating
1498
1592
Players out
22
22

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Gremio

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
3/6

Bahia

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Gremio

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%, last 6)

Bahia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Gremio at home · Bahia away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Gremio (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–5D–4L
W 8
D 5
L 4
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3

Bahia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–5D–5L
W 6
D 5
L 5
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Gremio (home)Bahia (away)
W 8
D 5
L 4
W 6
D 5
L 5
Played
17
16
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.40
Clean sheets
5
4
Failed to score
3
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–1
14.2%
0–0
10.07%
2–2
4.75%
3–3
0.78%
4–4
<0.1%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Bahia 3 wins · 3 draws · Gremio 3 wins · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 4 of 9

3
3
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
17 May 2026 Bahia 1–1 Gremio Serie A
20 Oct 2025 Bahia 4–0 Gremio Serie A
25 May 2025 Gremio 1–0 Bahia Serie A
17 Aug 2024 Gremio 0–2 Bahia Serie A
28 Apr 2024 Bahia 1–0 Gremio Serie A
05 Nov 2023 Gremio 1–0 Bahia Serie A
05 Jul 2023 Bahia 1–1 Gremio Copa Do Brasil
02 Jul 2023 Bahia 1–2 Gremio Serie A
16 Oct 2022 Gremio 1–1 Bahia Serie B

📈 Recent Form

Gremio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/10 Atletico Paranaense Home 2–0 W
27/10 Coritiba Away 1–0 W
18/10 Cruzeiro Home 2–4 L
11/10 Internacional Home 1–1 D
08/10 Remo Away 1–1 D
20/09 Palmeiras Home 0–0 D
17/09 Botafogo Away 2–3 L
12/09 Vasco DA Gama Home 1–2 L
08/09 Vitoria Away 0–1 L
04/09 Internacional Home 3–1 W

Bahia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
29/10 Sao Paulo Home 3–2 W
25/10 Santos Away 1–1 D
19/10 Flamengo Home 0–3 L
12/10 Mirassol Home 1–0 W
09/10 Palmeiras Away 0–1 L
21/09 Atletico Paranaense Away 1–2 L
15/09 Remo Home 2–1 W
05/09 RB Bragantino Away 3–2 W
31/08 Internacional Home 3–2 W
23/08 Vitoria Away 2–0 W

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Gremio #15 · 37 pts ·  Bahia #6 · 53 pts

Gremio

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–10D–14L
W 9
D 10
L 14
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets8
Failed to score10
Yellow cards86
Red cards5
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.51
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.07
Corners for (avg)3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Bahia

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–11D–8L
W 14
D 11
L 8
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets9
Failed to score5
Yellow cards77
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.08
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.70
Corners for (avg)5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)8/3
GremioBahia
W 9
D 10
L 14
W 14
D 11
L 8
Played
33
33
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.30
Clean sheets
8
9
Failed to score
10
5
Yellow cards
86
77
Red cards
5
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.51
2.08
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.07
1.70
Corners for (avg)
3.90
5.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
8/3

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Gremio

2
0-15
2
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
10
8
46-60
10
12
61-75
5
7
76-90
6
scored conceded

Bahia

5
0-15
6
8
16-30
7
9
31-45
15
6
46-60
3
8
61-75
5
6
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Gremio

  • ❌ M. Braithwaite: Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Villasanti: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Wagner Leonardo: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Arthur Melo: Injury
  • ❌ Viery: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Carlos Vinicius: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Roger: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Nardoni: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Riquelme: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Fabian Balbuena: Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Pavon: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Andre Henrique: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Gabriel Mec: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Pedro Gabriel: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Weverton: International duty
  • ❌ Tete: Injury
  • ❌ Dodi: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Diego Caito: Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabral: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Wallace: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Danilo Barbosa: Injury
  • ❌ B. G. Joao Pedro: Injury
  • ❓ M. Monsalve (doubtful): Injury
  • ❓ F. Amuzu (doubtful): Inactive

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Caio Paulista (Loan agreement).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Walter Kannemann, L. Perez, Willian, Gustavo Martins, Joao Pedro, Marlon, E. Noriega, Gabriel Grando, Luis Eduardo, Matheus Nascimento; not counted as confirmed absences.

Bahia

  • ❌ M. Sanabria: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Michel Araujo: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Sidney Duarte: Injury
  • ❌ Dell: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Caio Alexandre: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gilberto: Illness
  • ❌ Kanu: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Nicolas Acevedo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Willian Jose: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Ronaldo Strada: Injury
  • ❌ S. Ramos: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Erick: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Luciano Juba: Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Leo Vieira: Injury
  • ❌ C. Olivera: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Ze Guilherme: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Erick Pulga: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Ademir: Injury
  • ❌ Jean Lucas: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Everaldo: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ R. Gomez: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❓ David Duarte (doubtful): Hamstring Injury
  • ❓ Everton Ribeiro (doubtful): Injury

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): M. Moreno (Lacking Match Fitness).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Ruan Pablo; not counted as confirmed absences.

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