Corinthians vs Botafogo

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Thu, 19 Nov 2026 • 03:30 UTC+3 • Round 35 • Neo Quimica Arena

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

Market	Tip	Odds	Probability	Model EV
Match Result (1X2)	Home	Current price not available	42.2%	—
Double Chance	1X	Current price not available	72.7%	—
BTTS	No	Current price not available	52.7% · Yes 47.3%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	Current price not available	59.5% · Over 40.5%	—
Correct Score	1-0	Current price not available	11.7%	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.3 exp.)	Over 9.5	Current price not available	67.8% · Under 32.2%	—

🧠 Match Preview

Corinthians · Home

Corinthians have scored in each of their last five matches, including a 2-0 home win over Mirassol (2-0), and their recent xG for of 1.53 is the higher of the two sides. The model expects 1.3 goals from them here.

Botafogo · Away

Botafogo failed to score in one of their last five and managed only four goals across that run, with a recent xG for of 0.9. Their latest away matches include a 1-2 loss at Remo (1-2) and a 0-3 defeat at Internacional (0-3).

Corinthians edge the H2H trend

The latest head-to-head, on 17 May 2026, ended 3-1 to Botafogo (3-1), but the two meetings before that were draws: 2-2 in November 2025 (2-2) and 1-1 in July 2025 (1-1). Corinthians' scoring record of seven goals in five matches contrasts with Botafogo's four, and the model gives Corinthians 1.3 expected goals against Botafogo's 1.0. With the Under 2.5 pick at 59.5% and BTTS No at 52.7%, a narrow home result fits the data. The evidence supports Corinthians win.

Published 01 Nov 2026 04:46 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Corinthians 1.30 – 1.00 Botafogo · expected total 2.30

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🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Corinthians

Form (last 5)

W L D L L

Goals scored (season avg)1.10

Goals conceded (season avg)1.30

Best league winning streak this season3

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.53

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.32

Elo strength rating1390

Players out16

Botafogo

Form (last 5)

L L W D L

Goals scored (season avg)1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Best league winning streak this season3

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.90

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.15

Elo strength rating1483

Players out21

CorinthiansBotafogo

W L D L L

L L W D L

Goals scored (season avg)

1.10

1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.30

1.60

Best league winning streak this season

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)

1.53

0.90

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)

2.32

1.15

Elo strength rating

1390

1483

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Corinthians

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored a goal

6/6

No goals conceded

1/6

Botafogo

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored a goal

4/6

No goals conceded

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Corinthians

Best BTTS rate (83%, last 6) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%, last 6) 3rd best clean sheets (11, season)

Botafogo

2nd worst defence (1.60 conceded/game, season)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Corinthians at home · Botafogo away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Corinthians (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–7L

W 6

D 4

L 7

Played17

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets7

Failed to score5

Botafogo (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–10L

W 4

D 3

L 10

Played17

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets1

Failed to score5

Corinthians (home)Botafogo (away)

W 6

D 4

L 7

W 4

D 3

L 10

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

1.80

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–0

11.73%

2–0

8.5%

2–1

8.49%

3–0

3.69%

3–1

3.69%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Botafogo 4 wins · 2 draws · Corinthians 4 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
17 May 2026	Botafogo	3–1	Corinthians	Serie A
30 Nov 2025	Corinthians	2–2	Botafogo	Serie A
27 Jul 2025	Botafogo	1–1	Corinthians	Serie A
15 Sep 2024	Botafogo	2–1	Corinthians	Serie A
02 Jun 2024	Corinthians	0–1	Botafogo	Serie A
23 Sep 2023	Corinthians	1–0	Botafogo	Serie A
12 May 2023	Botafogo	3–0	Corinthians	Serie A
31 Jul 2022	Corinthians	1–0	Botafogo	Serie A
10 Apr 2022	Botafogo	1–3	Corinthians	Serie A
27 Dec 2020	Botafogo	0–2	Corinthians	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Corinthians

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
31/10	Mirassol	Home	2–0	W
25/10	Vasco DA Gama	Away	2–3	L
20/10	Vitoria	Home	1–1	D
11/10	Palmeiras	Away	1–4	L
08/10	Internacional	Away	1–2	L
20/09	Fluminense	Home	1–3	L
17/09	Estudiantes L.P.	Home	0–1	L
13/09	Flamengo	Away	1–2	L
10/09	Estudiantes L.P.	Away	1–1	D
07/09	Chapecoense-sc	Home	1–2	L

Botafogo

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
29/10	Remo	Away	1–2	L
24/10	Internacional	Away	0–3	L
18/10	Chapecoense-sc	Home	1–0	W
12/10	Coritiba	Away	1–1	D
08/10	Vasco DA Gama	Home	1–2	L
19/09	Mirassol	Away	0–2	L
17/09	Gremio	Home	3–2	W
13/09	RB Bragantino	Home	1–1	D
07/09	Palmeiras	Home	0–0	D
30/08	Flamengo	Away	0–3	L

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Corinthians #17 · 36 pts · Botafogo #12 · 39 pts

Corinthians

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–9D–15L

W 9

D 9

L 15

Played33

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets11

Failed to score7

Yellow cards85

Red cards4

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.53

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)2.32

Corners for (avg)6.30

Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Botafogo

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–9D–14L

W 10

D 9

L 14

Played33

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets5

Failed to score8

Yellow cards84

Red cards4

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.90

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.15

Corners for (avg)5.60

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

CorinthiansBotafogo

W 9

D 9

L 15

W 10

D 9

L 14

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.10

1.40

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

1.60

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)

1.53

0.90

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)

2.32

1.15

Corners for (avg)

6.30

5.60

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/0

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Corinthians

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Botafogo

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Corinthians

❌ Hugo: Injury
❌ Kaio Cesar: Injury
❌ M. Pereira: Injury
❌ Raniele: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Matheus Bidu: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Andre Ramalho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Andre: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Hugo Souza: Suspended (Suspended)
❌ Kayke: Knee Injury
❌ Gustavo Henrique: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Matheuzinho: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ J. Lingard: Personal Reasons
❌ Alex Santana: Thigh Injury
❌ F. Angileri: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Z. Labyad: Knee Injury
❌ R. Garro: Suspended (Yellow Cards)

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Allan (Loan agreement).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Martinez, Breno Bidon, Yuri Alberto, Felipe Longo, A. Carrillo, M. Depay, Gabriel Paulista, Gui Negao, Joao Pedro, Charles Rigon, P. Milans, Vitinho, Dieguinho; not counted as confirmed absences.

Botafogo

❌ Marcal: Knee Injury
❌ S. Rodriguez: Injury
❌ Allan: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ A. Barboza: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ C. Medina: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Newton: Shoulder Injury
❌ Danilo: International duty
❌ N. Ferraresi: International duty
❌ Alex Telles: Injury
❌ Nathan Fernandes: Injury
❌ Junior Santos: Injury
❌ Vitinho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Matheus Martins: Injury
❌ Arthur Cabral: Injury
❌ A. Montoro: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Huguinho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ J. Barrera: Injury
❌ G. Justino: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Paulinho: Injury
❌ Warleson: Injury
❌ K. Barria: Suspended (Yellow Cards)

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Correa, C. Ramos, Bastos, Kaio Pantaleao, M. Ponte, L. M. Villalba Jaume, Arthur Chaves, L. Monzon; not counted as confirmed absences.

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

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