Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 03:30 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Estadio Do MorumBIS • ☁️ 23.9°C, 6 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 2.00 (56.7%, Model EV +13.4%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.1 → 2.27 ▲8% | Betano2.27 | 46.9% | +6.5% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.34 | 74.9% | +0.4% |
| BTTS | Yes | Bet3652.00 | 56.1% · No 43.9% | +12.2% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Betfair2.38 | 44.7% · Under 55.3% | +6.4% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano9.75 | 9.8% | -4.5% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.1 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Betano1.52 | 66.7% · Under 33.3% | +1.4% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Sao Paulo · Home
Sao Paulo's recent away form is the weak point, with a 2-3 loss at Bahia and a 0-2 loss at Cruzeiro, but both home matches in this run ended in wins, 1-0 over Vasco DA Gama and 2-1 over Vitoria. Their recent xG for of 1.81 and model expected goals of 1.79 point to a home side capable of creating enough to win.
Corinthians · Away
Corinthians lost three of five, including 1-4 at Palmeiras and 2-3 at Vasco DA Gama, and their model expected goals of 1.08 sit below their recent xG for of 1.53. They did win 2-0 at home to Mirassol, but the away record in this sample is the concern.
Sao Paulo's Home Split
The venue split is the clearest angle: Sao Paulo won both home matches in this five-game run, while Corinthians lost all three away matches in theirs. The latest head-to-head, a 3-2 Corinthians home win on 10 May 2026, came at Corinthians' ground, and the earlier 1-1 on 18 Jan 2026 shows this matchup can stay close. Sao Paulo's model expected goals of 1.79 against Corinthians' 1.08 support the home edge without requiring an early goal. The evidence supports Sao Paulo win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.79 – 1.08 Corinthians · expected total 2.87
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sao Paulo
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sao Paulo at home · Corinthians away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Sao Paulo (home)
Corinthians (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Corinthians 2 wins · 2 draws · Sao Paulo 6 wins · avg 3.3 goals · BTTS in 8 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Corinthians | 3–2 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Corinthians | 1–1 | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| 21 Nov 2025 | Corinthians | 3–1 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 20 Jul 2025 | Sao Paulo | 2–0 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Sao Paulo | 3–1 | Corinthians | Paulista - A1 |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Sao Paulo | 3–1 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 16 Jun 2024 | Corinthians | 2–2 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Corinthians | 1–2 | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| 01 Oct 2023 | Sao Paulo | 2–1 | Corinthians | Serie A |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Sao Paulo | 2–0 | Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
📈 Recent Form
Sao Paulo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Bahia | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 24/10 | Mirassol | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 18/10 | Vasco DA Gama | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 11/10 | Vitoria | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 08/10 | Cruzeiro | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 03/10 | Santos | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Internacional | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Boca Juniors | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Palmeiras | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 09/09 | Boca Juniors | Away | 0–1 | L |
Corinthians
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Mirassol | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Vasco DA Gama | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 20/10 | Vitoria | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 11/10 | Palmeiras | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 08/10 | Internacional | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Fluminense | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 17/09 | Estudiantes L.P. | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 13/09 | Flamengo | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 10/09 | Estudiantes L.P. | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 07/09 | Chapecoense-sc | Home | 1–2 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Sao Paulo #10 · 43 pts · Corinthians #17 · 36 pts
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sao Paulo
- ❌ Andre Silva: Knee Injury
- ❌ Ryan Francisco: Knee Injury
- ❌ Lucas Moura: Broken rib
- ❌ D. Bobadilla: International duty
- ❌ E. Diaz: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ A. Franco: Injury
- ❌ G. Tapia: International duty
- ❌ Jonathan Calleri: Contusion
- ❌ Luciano: Overload
- ❌ Pablo Maia: Face Injury
- ❌ Sabino: Overload
- ❌ Marcos Antonio: Injury
- ❌ R. Toloi: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Wendell: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Luis Osorio: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Buta: Knee Injury
- ❌ D. Duarte: Knee Injury
- ❌ P. dos Santos: International duty
- ❌ Artur: Back Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Alisson, Danielzinho, Lucca Marques, Lucas Ramon, Carlos Coronel, Paulinho, Djhordney, Ferreira, Maik, Robert Arboleda, Cauly, Victor Sa, N. Bosshardt, Iago Borduchi, Rafael; not counted as confirmed absences.
Corinthians
- ❌ Hugo: Injury
- ❌ Kaio Cesar: Injury
- ❌ M. Pereira: Injury
- ❌ Raniele: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Matheus Bidu: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Andre Ramalho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Andre: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Hugo Souza: Suspended (Suspended)
- ❌ Kayke: Knee Injury
- ❌ Gustavo Henrique: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Matheuzinho: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ J. Lingard: Personal Reasons
- ❌ Alex Santana: Thigh Injury
- ❌ F. Angileri: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Z. Labyad: Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Garro: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Allan (Loan agreement).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Martinez, Breno Bidon, Yuri Alberto, Felipe Longo, A. Carrillo, M. Depay, Gabriel Paulista, Gui Negao, Joao Pedro, Charles Rigon, P. Milans, Vitinho, Dieguinho; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: R. Claus