Ayr Utd vs Partick
Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 • 18:30 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Somerset Park • 🌦 4.1°C, 31 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle
Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
| Market | Tip | Confidence | Probability | Odds | Bookmaker | Market implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 1.8 → 1.85 ▲3% | 80% | 47.1% | 1.85 | William Hill | 53.1% | -6 pp |
| Double Chance | X2 | 67% | 66.2% | 1.24 | Betano | 77.9% | -11.7 pp |
| BTTS | No | 81% | 49.3% | 2.00 | William Hill | 47.4% | +1.9 pp |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 85% | 56.3% | 1.95 | Betano | 49.4% | +6.9 pp |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | 68% | 10% | 7.50 | Bet365 | 6.6% | +3.4 pp |
⚽ Model expected goals: Ayr Utd 0.98 – 1.07 Partick · expected total 2.06
Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.
🧠 Match Preview
The model leans on recent form and goal expectancy. Partick arrive with a WWDLW run, Ayr with DWLWL. Expected goals are tight but tilted away: 0.9835 for Ayr against 1.0747 for Partick, suggesting a low-scoring, finely balanced contest rather than a shootout. No injuries are listed for either squad, so both managers have full options. The head-to-head record is telling: Partick have won three of the last five meetings, including a 1-0 win in September 2026, with two draws and no Ayr victory in that span.
The headline tip is an away win at 47.1% probability, priced at 1.85. Double chance X2 carries 66.2%, a safer route if you expect Ayr to frustrate. Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 56.3% and 1.95, consistent with those modest expected-goal figures. Both teams to score is tipped No at 49.3% and odds of 2, and the correct-score model points to 0-1 at 10%, with 0-2 and 1-2 close behind. Value may hide in the away win if you trust the table gap and head-to-head edge.
The caveat: 47.1% is not dominance, and Ayr's home draw tendency plus a near-even expected-goals split means a low-scoring stalemate is a live risk. Treat the away win as a lean, not a lock.
Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Ayr Utd
Partick
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Ayr Utd
Partick
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship
Ayr Utd
Partick
Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Ayr Utd at home · Partick away — the split that matters for this fixture.
Ayr Utd (home)
Partick (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scorelines
The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Ayr Utd 2 wins · 2 draws · Partick 6 wins · avg 1.9 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep 2026 | Partick | 1–0 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Ayr Utd | 1–1 | Partick | Championship |
| 24 Jan 2026 | Partick | 2–1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Ayr Utd | 0–0 | Partick | Championship |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Partick | 2–1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Partick | 2–0 | Ayr Utd | League Cup |
| 09 May 2025 | Ayr Utd | 0–2 | Partick | Premiership |
| 06 May 2025 | Partick | 0–1 | Ayr Utd | Premiership |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Partick | 2–0 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Ayr Utd | 2–1 | Partick | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Ayr Utd
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Dunfermline | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 03/10 | Livingston | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 25/09 | Stenhousemuir | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 18/09 | Queen's Park | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Inverness CT | Home | 1–3 | L |
Partick
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Livingston | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Arbroath | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Raith Rovers | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 15/09 | Stenhousemuir | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | Ayr Utd | Home | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison — Championship
Ayr Utd #7 · 12 pts — Partick #3 · 18 pts
Ayr Utd
Partick
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Ayr Utd
Partick
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws