Cruzeiro vs Bahia
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 • 03:30 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Estádio Mineirão • ☁️ 21.4°C, 1 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.83 → 1.78 ▼3% | Betano1.78 | 56.7% | +0.9% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.24 | 78.9% | -2.2% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.53 | 63.9% · No 36.1% | -2.2% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Betano1.57 | 62.3% · Under 37.7% | -2.2% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano8.75 | 9.7% | -15.1% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.5 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Betano1.32 | 63.1% · Under 36.9% | -16.7% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Cruzeiro · Home
Cruzeiro have won four of their last five, including a 2-0 home win over Sao Paulo and a 4-2 away win at Gremio, with three clean sheets in that run. Their recent xG for of 2.56 across up to five matches with recorded statistics supports a strong attacking baseline, and the model expects 2.09 goals here.
Bahia · Away
Bahia have scored just five goals in five matches and failed to score twice, including a 0-3 home loss to Flamengo and a 0-1 away defeat at Palmeiras. Their recent xG for of 2.08 is higher than that output suggests, but the model expects only 1.27 goals in this fixture.
Cruzeiro's H2H Edge Holds
The latest head-to-head is the clearest angle: Cruzeiro won 1-2 away at Bahia on 10 May 2026, repeating the same scoreline from 15 Sep 2025. Cruzeiro also won the home meeting 3-0, so all three supplied encounters went their way. Bahia's two failed-to-score matches in five show the risk of the away side being kept out, while Cruzeiro have failed to score in none of their last five. The evidence supports Cruzeiro win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Cruzeiro 2.09 – 1.27 Bahia · expected total 3.36
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Cruzeiro
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Cruzeiro
Bahia
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Cruzeiro at home · Bahia away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Cruzeiro (home)
Bahia (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Bahia 2 wins · 3 draws · Cruzeiro 5 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Bahia | 1–2 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 16 Sep 2025 | Bahia | 1–2 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Cruzeiro | 3–0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Cruzeiro | 1–1 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 23 Jun 2024 | Bahia | 4–1 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 26 Oct 2023 | Cruzeiro | 3–0 | Bahia | Serie A |
| 11 Jun 2023 | Bahia | 2–2 | Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 23 Jul 2022 | Cruzeiro | 1–0 | Bahia | Serie B |
| 09 Apr 2022 | Bahia | 2–0 | Cruzeiro | Serie B |
| 04 Nov 2019 | Cruzeiro | 1–1 | Bahia | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Cruzeiro
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Atletico-MG | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Remo | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Gremio | Away | 4–2 | W |
| 13/10 | RB Bragantino | Away | 2–4 | L |
| 08/10 | Sao Paulo | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Vitoria | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 13/09 | Santos | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Atletico Paranaense | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 02/09 | Atletico-MG | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 30/08 | Vasco DA Gama | Away | 1–3 | L |
Bahia
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Sao Paulo | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 25/10 | Santos | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 19/10 | Flamengo | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 12/10 | Mirassol | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 09/10 | Palmeiras | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 21/09 | Atletico Paranaense | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 15/09 | Remo | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 05/09 | RB Bragantino | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 31/08 | Internacional | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 23/08 | Vitoria | Away | 2–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Cruzeiro #3 · 57 pts · Bahia #6 · 53 pts
Cruzeiro
Bahia
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Cruzeiro
Bahia
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Cruzeiro
- ❌ Marquinhos: Knee Injury
- ❌ L. Sinisterra: Injury
- ❌ Chico: Injury
- ❌ William Furtado: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Cassio: Injury
- ❌ Matheus Pereira: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Fabricio Bruno: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Lucas Silva: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ K. Arroyo: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Kaiki: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Matheus Henrique: Health problems
- ❌ Gabriel Pec: Broken Leg
- ❌ Kenji: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Leo Aragao: Muscle Injury
- ❌ Felipe Morais: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❓ L. Villalba (doubtful): Ankle Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Matheus Cunha, Jonathan Jesus, Kaua Moraes, Bruno Rodrigues, Kaio Jorge, L. Romero, Gerson, Joao Marcelo, Fagner, N. Villarreal, Kaua Prates, Wanderson; not counted as confirmed absences.
Bahia
- ❌ M. Sanabria: Knee Injury
- ❌ Michel Araujo: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Sidney Duarte: Injury
- ❌ Dell: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Caio Alexandre: Muscle Injury
- ❌ Gilberto: Illness
- ❌ Kanu: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ Nicolas Acevedo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Willian Jose: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ Ronaldo Strada: Injury
- ❌ S. Ramos: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Erick: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Luciano Juba: Injury
- ❌ Rodrigo: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Leo Vieira: Injury
- ❌ C. Olivera: Ankle Injury
- ❌ Ze Guilherme: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Erick Pulga: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Ademir: Injury
- ❌ Jean Lucas: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Everaldo: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ R. Gomez: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❓ David Duarte (doubtful): Hamstring Injury
- ❓ Everton Ribeiro (doubtful): Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): M. Moreno (Lacking Match Fitness).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Ruan Pablo; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws