Dunfermline vs Arbroath
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • East End Park • ☀️ 12.4°C, 24 km/h clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 69.3% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 91.3% | — |
| BTTS | No | Current price not available | 63.6% · Yes 36.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 55.9% · Over 44.1% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | Current price not available | 15.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Dunfermline · Home
Dunfermline are unbeaten across their last five, winning three and conceding only twice, with clean sheets in three of those matches. Their 5-1 home win over Inverness CT is the standout result in this run.
Arbroath · Away
Arbroath have lost all five recent matches, scoring once and conceding twelve, and they failed to score in four of those five games. Their latest outing was a 0-4 home defeat to Raith Rovers.
Arbroath's scoring drought
The latest head-to-head, on 5 Sep 2026, finished 1-1 at Arbroath, following a 0-0 draw there and a 1-0 Dunfermline home win. Arbroath's recent record of one goal in five matches, with four scoreless displays, sits against a Dunfermline side that has conceded just twice in five. The model gives Dunfermline 1.91 expected goals against Arbroath's 0.54, and the 2-0 correct-score pick fits a low-scoring home win. The evidence supports Dunfermline win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Dunfermline 1.91 – 0.54 Arbroath · expected total 2.45
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Dunfermline at home · Arbroath away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Dunfermline (home)
Arbroath (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Arbroath 2 wins · 5 draws · Dunfermline 3 wins · avg 2.6 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep 2026 | Arbroath | 1–1 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 08 May 2026 | Arbroath | 0–0 | Dunfermline | Premiership |
| 05 May 2026 | Dunfermline | 1–0 | Arbroath | Premiership |
| 01 May 2026 | Dunfermline | 0–0 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Arbroath | 4–2 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Dunfermline | 1–2 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Arbroath | 0–5 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 30 Mar 2024 | Arbroath | 2–3 | Dunfermline | Championship |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Dunfermline | 1–1 | Arbroath | Championship |
| 23 Dec 2023 | Arbroath | 1–1 | Dunfermline | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Dunfermline
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Inverness CT | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 27/10 | Stenhousemuir | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Queen's Park | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 20/10 | Partick | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Livingston | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 10/10 | Ayr Utd | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 03/10 | Aberdeen | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 19/09 | Morton | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Queen's Park | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Arbroath | Away | 1–1 | D |
Arbroath
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Raith Rovers | Home | 0–4 | L |
| 24/10 | Livingston | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | Inverness CT | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Morton | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 03/10 | Partick | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 25/09 | Queen's Park | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Stenhousemuir | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 12/09 | Raith Rovers | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 05/09 | Dunfermline | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 29/08 | Livingston | Home | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Dunfermline #3 · 24 pts · Arbroath #8 · 11 pts
Dunfermline
Arbroath
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Dunfermline
Arbroath
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws